Worldwide Ecommerce Forecast Update 2022

Digital Sales Growth Plummets as Overall Retail Returns to Pre-Pandemic Trendlines

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  | Jul 29, 2022

Ecommerce Forecasts 2022

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Our data and analyses of ecommerce across 8 markets: US, Canada, China, Latin America, India, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and UK

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Key Points
Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
Worldwide Ecommerce Growth Drops to Single Digits, While Overall Retail Muddles Through
Look to Emerging Markets for Growth, Particularly in the East
One-Third of the Planet Will Be Digital Buyers, but Growth Is Slowing Dramatically
What Does This Forecast Mean for Brands and Retailers Worldwide?
Read Next
Media Gallery
About This Report
Macroeconomic headwinds are sweeping through retail markets worldwide, and ecommerce conditions are deteriorating rapidly, especially in mature markets. Globally, total retail is chugging along, but the big stories will be around ecommerce growth in emerging economies.
Topics
Retail Sales
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Key Points
Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
Worldwide Ecommerce Growth Drops to Single Digits, While Overall Retail Muddles Through
Look to Emerging Markets for Growth, Particularly in the East
One-Third of the Planet Will Be Digital Buyers, but Growth Is Slowing Dramatically
What Does This Forecast Mean for Brands and Retailers Worldwide?
Read Next
Media Gallery

Executive Summary

Retail ecommerce spending will grow slower than ever in 2022, as most of the world’s largest markets face economic challenges. Growth rates will not go negative, however, and some parts of the world will do just fine.

3 KEY QUESTIONS THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER

  1. What is the outlook for total retail, ecommerce, and mcommerce sales worldwide in 2022?
  2. Which countries and regions will lead the world in ecommerce growth this year, and which will stagnate?
  3. How many new buyers will come online this year, and where can retailers find them?

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? Our updated worldwide, regional, and country-level forecast for total retail sales, including ecommerce and mcommerce, and digital buyers through 2026.

Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2021-2026 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)
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KEY STAT: Around the world, ecommerce sales will increase by just 9.7% this year, by far the slowest pace of expansion since we began tracking the figure in 2011. However, declines in growth will be minimal over the next few years.

Here’s what’s in the full report

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Key Points
  3. Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
  1. Worldwide Ecommerce Growth Drops to Single Digits, While Overall Retail Muddles Through
  2. Look to Emerging Markets for Growth, Particularly in the East
  3. One-Third of the Planet Will Be Digital Buyers, but Growth Is Slowing Dramatically
  1. What Does This Forecast Mean for Brands and Retailers Worldwide?
  2. Read Next
  3. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2021-2026 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)Total Retail Sales Worldwide, 2020-2026 (trillions and % change)
Retail Mcommerce Sales Worldwide, 2021-2026Retail Ecommerce vs. Retail Mcommerce vs. Total Retail Growth Worldwide, 2021-2026 (% change)
Total Retail and Retail Ecommerce* Sales Growth Worldwide, by Region, 2022 (% change)Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, by Region, 2022 (billions)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2022 (% change)Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Share of Total Retail Sales, 2022 (% of total retail sales)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2022 (billions and % change)Digital Buyers Worldwide, 2021-2026 (billions, % change, and % of population)
Digital Buyer Growth Worldwide, by Region, 2022 (% change)Digital Buyers Worldwide, by Region, 2022 (millions)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Number of Digital Buyers, 2022 (millions)

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authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Jade Appel
Associate Forecasting Analyst
Whitney Birdsall
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Oscar Bruce Jr.
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Zach Goldner
Junior Forecasting Analyst
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Louie-Lam
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Andrew Spink
Forecasting Analyst
Yaffa Wagschal
Forecasting Analyst