China Ecommerce Forecast 2022

Livestreaming and Groceries Will Be Bright Spots amid Historically Low Growth

Executive Summary

The days of perennial standout ecommerce growth in China are over. But emerging retail categories and channels continue to thrive in ways unique to the country. Retailers can leverage these pockets of growth if they get ahead of mounting regulations and shifting consumer behaviors.


  1. What’s the outlook for total retail and ecommerce sales in China this year?
  2. What are the latest estimates for livestreaming ecommerce sales and digital grocery sales in China?
  3. How many new digital buyers will come online this year, and what are the trends for existing buyers?

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? Our latest forecast for China’s retail sales, retail sales by product category, retail ecommerce, livestreaming ecommerce, grocery ecommerce, digital buyers, and ecommerce by company.

KEY STAT: China’s ecommerce sales will increase by 9.1% this year, the lowest growth since we began our tracking in 2008. However, total new spending will still be huge: China’s digital buyers will shell out $240.13 billion more than in 2021.

Here’s what’s in the full report


Exportable files for easy reading, analysis and sharing.


Reliable data in simple displays for presentations and quick decision making.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Key Points
  3. Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
  4. Ecommerce Sales Growth Will Decline to Single Digits
  1. Livestreaming and Groceries Will Be Silver Linings
  2. Macroeconomic Conditions Weigh on China’s ‘Big Three’ Ecommerce Platforms
  3. Where Are the Digital Buyers?
  4. What Does This Forecast Mean for Brands and Retailers in China?
  1. Read Next
  2. Sources
  3. Media Gallery

Access full deck

View a slide-show representation of this report’s key insights, where carefully vetted data is combined with industry trend analysis, included at no extra cost.
Download PPTX












Access All Charts and Data

Gain access to reliable data presented in clear and intelligible displays for quick understanding and decision making on the most important topics related to your industry, included at no extra cost.


Ethan Cramer-Flood


Jade Appel
Associate Forecasting Analyst
Man-Chung Cheung
Senior Researcher

"Behind the Numbers" Podcast