China Ecommerce Forecast 2022

Livestreaming and Groceries Will Be Bright Spots amid Historically Low Growth

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  | Jul 29, 2022

Ecommerce Forecasts 2022

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Our data and analyses of ecommerce across 8 markets: US, Canada, China, Latin America, India, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and UK

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Key Points
Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
Ecommerce Sales Growth Will Decline to Single Digits
Livestreaming and Groceries Will Be Silver Linings
Macroeconomic Conditions Weigh on China’s ‘Big Three’ Ecommerce Platforms
Where Are the Digital Buyers?
What Does This Forecast Mean for Brands and Retailers in China?
Read Next
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Challenging macroeconomic conditions have ushered in an era of more modest spending growth in China. But the outlook remains positive in spaces that are capturing consumer interest and demand—like live commerce and digital groceries.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Retail Sales
China
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Key Points
Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
Ecommerce Sales Growth Will Decline to Single Digits
Livestreaming and Groceries Will Be Silver Linings
Macroeconomic Conditions Weigh on China’s ‘Big Three’ Ecommerce Platforms
Where Are the Digital Buyers?
What Does This Forecast Mean for Brands and Retailers in China?
Read Next
Sources
Media Gallery

Executive Summary

The days of perennial standout ecommerce growth in China are over. But emerging retail categories and channels continue to thrive in ways unique to the country. Retailers can leverage these pockets of growth if they get ahead of mounting regulations and shifting consumer behaviors.

3 KEY QUESTIONS THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER

  1. What’s the outlook for total retail and ecommerce sales in China this year?
  2. What are the latest estimates for livestreaming ecommerce sales and digital grocery sales in China?
  3. How many new digital buyers will come online this year, and what are the trends for existing buyers?

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? Our latest forecast for China’s retail sales, retail sales by product category, retail ecommerce, livestreaming ecommerce, grocery ecommerce, digital buyers, and ecommerce by company.

Retail Ecommerce Sales in China, 2020-2026 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)
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KEY STAT: China’s ecommerce sales will increase by 9.1% this year, the lowest growth since we began our tracking in 2008. However, total new spending will still be huge: China’s digital buyers will shell out $240.13 billion more than in 2021.

Here’s what’s in the full report

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Key Points
  3. Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
  4. Ecommerce Sales Growth Will Decline to Single Digits
  1. Livestreaming and Groceries Will Be Silver Linings
  2. Macroeconomic Conditions Weigh on China’s ‘Big Three’ Ecommerce Platforms
  3. Where Are the Digital Buyers?
  4. What Does This Forecast Mean for Brands and Retailers in China?
  1. Read Next
  2. Sources
  3. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Ecommerce Sales in China, 2020-2026 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)Retail Ecommerce Sales in China* and the US, 2020-2026 (trillions)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Share, 2022 (% of worldwide retail ecommerce sales)Total Retail Sales in China* and the US, 2020-2026 (trillions)
Retail Sales in China, by Product Category, 2022Livestreaming Retail Ecommerce Sales in China, 2020-2024 (billions, % change, and % of retail ecommerce sales)
Grocery Retail Ecommerce Sales in China, 2020-2026 (billions, % change, and % of total grocery retail sales)Top 6 Companies in China, Ranked by Ecommerce Sales, 2022
Top 3 Companies in China, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales Share, 2017-2023 (% of total retail ecommerce sales)Digital Buyers in China, 2022-2026
Livestreaming Retail Ecommerce Buyers in China, 2020-2026 (millions, % change, and % of digital buyers)Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Number of Digital Buyers, 2022 (millions)

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authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Jade Appel
Associate Forecasting Analyst
Man-Chung Cheung
Senior Researcher