UK Ecommerce Forecast 2022

Digital Helps Bolster Retail Sales, but Growth Slows Significantly

Executive Summary

The weak UK economy is hitting the retail sector. But while growth will not be as strong as we expected, the outlook isn’t too bleak. Ecommerce continues to help in that regard, although its rapid sales growth will slow significantly and settle at a rate somewhat similar to that of physical retail.


  1. What are the sales figures for total retail, ecommerce, and mcommerce in the UK this year and beyond?
  2. Which product categories are faring best as household spending comes under pressure?
  3. What do these trends mean for retailers in the UK?

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? Our latest forecast and analysis for total retail, ecommerce, and mcommerce sales in the UK, as well as the performance of certain product categories.

KEY STAT: Annual ecommerce sales growth will hover around 4% through 2026. Physical sales will have another tough couple of years thanks to economic pressures, but from 2024 onward, their growth figures will be only slightly lower than those of ecommerce.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Key Points
  3. Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
  4. The Ecommerce Boom Is Coming to an End
  1. Smartphones Are Now the Overriding Choice for Mobile Commerce
  2. Clothing Will Beat Expectations as Other Categories Struggle Under Economic Pressure
  3. What Does This Forecast Mean for Retailers in the UK?
  4. Read Next
  1. Sources
  2. Media Gallery

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Bill Fisher, and Carina Perkins


Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Peter Newman
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Yaffa Wagschal
Forecasting Analyst

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