US Ecommerce Forecast 2022

Sales Will Hit $1 Trillion Mark for the First Time, Despite Slowing Growth

Executive Summary

After two turbulent years, retail sales growth will slow in 2022 before returning to pre-pandemic levels next year. Ecommerce sales growth will fall below 10% this year, its lowest rate since 2009. In-store spending will see stronger-than-typical growth for another year as consumers continue returning to physical locations. Despite the slowdown, ecommerce sales will hit $1 trillion for the first time in the US.


  1. What is the outlook for total retail, ecommerce, and mcommerce sales in the US this year through 2026?
  2. Which are the top retailers, and how will they fare in 2022?
  3. How will each product category perform, and which will continue to grow through 2026?

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? Our latest forecast for total retail and ecommerce sales in the US from 2022 to 2026. Also, a ranking of the top 15 ecommerce retailers, the performance of product categories, and digital buyer trends.

KEY STAT: In 2022, US ecommerce sales growth will slow to just 9.4% year over year (YoY)—the slowest growth rate since 2009—but ecommerce sales will cross the $1 trillion mark for the first time.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Key Points
  3. Macroeconomic Trends Affecting Retail Sales in 2022
  1. Total Retail Sales Will be Higher Than Previously Expected
  2. Amazon Loses Steam, But We Expect a Quick Recovery
  3. Beauty and Grocery Continue to See Strong Growth
  1. What Does This Forecast Mean for Retailers in the US?
  2. Read Next
  3. Media Gallery

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Suzy Davidkhanian


Ethan Cramer-Flood
Senior Forecasting Writer
Whitney Birdsall
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Louie-Lam
Senior Forecasting Analyst

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