Worldwide Ecommerce Forecast 2023

Digital Sales Growth Will Accelerate Modestly as Stability and Predictability Finally Return

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  | UPDATED: Dec 22, 2023

Ecommerce Forecasts 2023

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Our data and analyses of ecommerce across 8 markets: US, Canada, China, Latin America, India, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and UK

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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Worldwide, there will be a modest rebound for ecommerce and a gentle slowdown for total retail.
Regionally, the stabilization of advanced markets will buttress the global outlook.
Several countries will post standout growth, and China will overshadow all.
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About This Report
After three years of wild fluctuations in retail and ecommerce sales growth, a sense of stability and normalcy is slowly emerging. A healthy if unspectacular rebound for ecommerce is in the cards, and most national markets are heading in the right direction.
Topics
Retail Sales
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Worldwide, there will be a modest rebound for ecommerce and a gentle slowdown for total retail.
Regionally, the stabilization of advanced markets will buttress the global outlook.
Several countries will post standout growth, and China will overshadow all.
Media Gallery

Worldwide retail and ecommerce sales will see a decent rebound for digital sales and a slow deceleration for overall retail this year. Most national markets are also returning to normalcy, but a great deal of country-by-country variance remains.

Key Question: What is the outlook for worldwide and country-by-country retail and ecommerce sales in 2023 and beyond?

Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2021-2027 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)
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KEY STAT: Worldwide ecommerce sales growth will accelerate this year and next, after an all-time low of 6.5% growth in 2022. Next year, sales will cross the $6 trillion mark, half of which will come from China.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Worldwide, there will be a modest rebound for ecommerce and a gentle slowdown for total retail.
  1. Regionally, the stabilization of advanced markets will buttress the global outlook.
  2. Several countries will post standout growth, and China will overshadow all.
  1. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2021-2027 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)Total Retail Sales Worldwide, 2021-2027 (trillions and % change)
Retail Sales Growth and Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth Worldwide, 2016-2027 (% change)Retail Ecommerce and Total Retail Sales Growth Worldwide, by Largest Markets, 2023 (% change)
Retail Ecommerce Sales Share of Total Retail Sales Worldwide, by Market, 2023 (% share of total retail sales)Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2023 (% change)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce as Share of Total Retail Sales, 2023 (% of total retail sales)Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2023 (billions and % change)

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First Published on Aug 11, 2023

authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Cosima Balletti-Thomas
Associate Forecasting Analyst
Whitney Birdsall
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Oscar Bruce Jr.
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Vivian Dong
Associate Forecasting Analyst
Jasmin Ellis
Forecasting Analyst
Zach Goldner
Forecasting Analyst
Vladimir Hanzlik
Executive Editor
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Louie-Lam
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Ruoyan Zeng
Associate Forecasting Analyst