Western Europe Ecommerce Forecast 2023

Online Rebounds Despite a Slowdown in Retail Sales as Consumers Cut Back

Retail sales growth is slowing in Western Europe as the cost-of-living crisis hampers consumer spending. However, ecommerce is bouncing back after last year’s decline—with online grocery sales set for particularly strong growth in France and Germany. Mcommerce continues to outpace the wider ecommerce market: More than two-thirds of digital buyers will make a purchase on a smartphone or tablet in 2023 across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK (aka the former EU-5).

Key Question: What’s the outlook for Western Europe ecommerce sales over the next four years, and where are the biggest opportunities for growth?

KEY STAT: After declining by 4.5% in 2022, ecommerce sales will grow by 3.0% to $604.33 billion across Western Europe in 2023. However, they will continue to lag overall retail sales.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Retail sales growth is slowing amid economic turbulence.
  3. Ecommerce sales will rebound in 2023—but remain constrained.
  1. Mobile commerce will gain a larger share of online retail sales.
  2. Fashion claims the biggest share of ecommerce sales in France—but it’s losing ground.
  3. Grocery is gaining share of online sales in France and Germany.
  1. Key takeaways for retailers and brands:
  2. Sources
  3. Media Gallery

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First Published on Aug 9, 2023


Carina Perkins


Oscar Bruce Jr.
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Sky Canaves
Senior Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Bill Fisher
Principal Analyst, UK
Angela Kim
Senior Researcher

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