Latin America Ecommerce Forecast 2023

Double-Digit Gains Endure as the Regional Economy Worsens

Report by Matteo Ceurvels  | UPDATED: Dec 20, 2023

Ecommerce Forecasts 2023

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Our data and analyses of ecommerce across 8 markets: US, Canada, China, Latin America, India, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and UK

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
We’ve reduced our retail ecommerce forecast for the region.
Latin America’s stagflationary environment will slow consumer spending.
Latin America’s retail ecommerce sales will expand by double digits every year through 2027.
Ecommerce won’t overtake brick-and-mortar anytime soon in Latin America.
Mercado Libre further solidifies its ecommerce lead in the region.
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About This Report
Double-digit inflation and stagnant economic growth have hit Latin America’s retail industry. Retail ecommerce sales growth in the region decelerated to its slowest rate on record last year, but we expect it to reaccelerate in several key markets. Here are our latest forecasts, along with new breakouts for Chile, Colombia, and Peru.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Retail Sales
Latin America
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
We’ve reduced our retail ecommerce forecast for the region.
Latin America’s stagflationary environment will slow consumer spending.
Latin America’s retail ecommerce sales will expand by double digits every year through 2027.
Ecommerce won’t overtake brick-and-mortar anytime soon in Latin America.
Mercado Libre further solidifies its ecommerce lead in the region.
Behind the Numbers
Listen Next
Sources
Media Gallery

Last year, retail ecommerce sales growth in Latin America failed to outpace inflation for the first time since we began tracking the region in 2009. Despite high inflation and sluggish economic activity, we expect digital sales growth this year in several key markets we forecast.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for retail and ecommerce sales in Latin America this year and beyond, and how will macroeconomic conditions affect consumer spending at the country level?

Retail Ecommerce vs. Non-Ecommerce Sales Growth in Latin America, 2016-2027 (% change)
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KEY STAT: Retail ecommerce sales growth in Latin America will begin to normalize after 2020’s high double-digit gains. Sales will grow by 14.3% this year, led by a strong performance in Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. We’ve reduced our retail ecommerce forecast for the region.
  3. Latin America’s stagflationary environment will slow consumer spending.
  4. Latin America’s retail ecommerce sales will expand by double digits every year through 2027.
  1. Ecommerce won’t overtake brick-and-mortar anytime soon in Latin America.
  2. Mercado Libre further solidifies its ecommerce lead in the region.
  3. Behind the Numbers
  4. Listen Next
  1. Sources
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Ecommerce vs. Non-Ecommerce Sales Growth in Latin America, 2016-2027 (% change)Retail Ecommerce Sales in Latin America, by Country, 2022-2027 (billions)
How Has Our Forecast for Retail Ecommerce Sales Share in Latin America Changed? (% of total retail sales, 2016-2027)Forecast for Retail Ecommerce and Total Retail Sales Growth vs. Inflation in Latin America, 2022-2027 (% change vs. previous year)
Ways the Rising Cost of Living Has Affected the Spending Habits of Consumers in Select Countries in Latin America, Dec 2022 (% of respondents in each group)Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth Worldwide, by Region, 2023 (% change)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2023 (% change)Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth vs. Rate of Inflation in Argentina, 2012-2023 (% change)
Retail Ecommerce Sales in Chile, 2019-2027 (billions, % change, and % of total retail sales)Retail Ecommerce Sales Share in Latin America, by Country, 2019-2027 (% of total retail sales)
Channels on Which Consumers in Mexico Find the Most Compelling Offers and Products from Retailers, by Age, Sep 2022 (% of respondents)Mercado Libre Retail Ecommerce Sales Share in Select Countries in Latin America, 2019-2024 (% of total retail ecommerce sales in each country)
Mercado Libre Retail Ecommerce Sales Share in Latin America, by Country, 2019-2024 (billions and % of total)Comparative Estimates: Retail Ecommerce Sales* Share in Brazil, by Company, 2017-2022 (billions and % of total)
Comparative Estimates: Retail Ecommerce Sales* Share Among Select Companies in Mexico, 2016-2024 (% of total retail ecommerce sales)Mercado Libre vs. Amazon Retail Ecommerce Sales in Mexico, 2016-2024 (billions)

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First Published on Jul 26, 2023

authors

Matteo Ceurvels

Contributors

Oscar Bruce Jr.
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Paola Flores-Marquez
Researcher, Latin America & Spain
Zach Goldner
Forecasting Analyst
Vladimir Hanzlik
Executive Editor
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst