China Ecommerce Forecast 2023

China Is Back in Business With a Meaningful—if Modest—Rebound

China’s retail and ecommerce sales will grow more quickly in 2023 than in 2022, but both metrics were very low last year compared with the country’s pre-pandemic standard. This year’s rebounds will be meaningful but modest. The overall outlook is positive, and China remains staggeringly ahead of the rest of the world in most ecommerce measures.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for retail, ecommerce, mcommerce, and livestreaming sales in China this year, and what are the projections for major players like Alibaba,, Pinduoduo, and Douyin?

KEY STAT: After a difficult 2022, China is in line for a growth rebound (9.3%), and by 2024, total ecommerce sales will have crossed the $3 trillion mark. No other country will produce a sales figure even half that level.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. China’s economy has stabilized, and the outlook is brighter than it was in 2022.
  1. China towers over the rest of the world in the ecommerce space.
  2. Alibaba is losing share, and Douyin has burst onto the ecommerce scene.
  1. Media Gallery

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First Published on Jul 14, 2023


Ethan Cramer-Flood


Sky Canaves
Senior Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Ruoyan Zeng
Associate Forecasting Analyst