China Ecommerce Forecast 2023

China Is Back in Business With a Meaningful—if Modest—Rebound

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  | UPDATED: Dec 22, 2023

Ecommerce Forecasts 2023

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Our data and analyses of ecommerce across 8 markets: US, Canada, China, Latin America, India, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and UK

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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
China’s economy has stabilized, and the outlook is brighter than it was in 2022.
China towers over the rest of the world in the ecommerce space.
Alibaba is losing share, and Douyin has burst onto the ecommerce scene.
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About This Report
After the self-inflicted stagnation of 2022, China’s retail and ecommerce sales growth is somewhat back on track. At the company level, Douyin has burst onto the scene as a major retailer, and Pinduoduo’s ascent continues.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
China
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
China’s economy has stabilized, and the outlook is brighter than it was in 2022.
China towers over the rest of the world in the ecommerce space.
Alibaba is losing share, and Douyin has burst onto the ecommerce scene.
Media Gallery

China’s retail and ecommerce sales will grow more quickly in 2023 than in 2022, but both metrics were very low last year compared with the country’s pre-pandemic standard. This year’s rebounds will be meaningful but modest. The overall outlook is positive, and China remains staggeringly ahead of the rest of the world in most ecommerce measures.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for retail, ecommerce, mcommerce, and livestreaming sales in China this year, and what are the projections for major players like Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Douyin?

Retail Ecommerce Sales in China, 2021-2027 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)
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KEY STAT: After a difficult 2022, China is in line for a growth rebound (9.3%), and by 2024, total ecommerce sales will have crossed the $3 trillion mark. No other country will produce a sales figure even half that level.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. China’s economy has stabilized, and the outlook is brighter than it was in 2022.
  1. China towers over the rest of the world in the ecommerce space.
  2. Alibaba is losing share, and Douyin has burst onto the ecommerce scene.
  1. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Ecommerce Sales in China, 2021-2027 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)Retail Sales in China, by Product Category, 2023 (billions)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Share of Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2023 (% of total)Total Retail Sales in the US and China, 2021-2027 (trillions)
Top 5 Countries, by Retail Ecommerce Penetration, 2020-2027 (% of total retail sales)Top 4 Companies in China, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2023 (billions, % change, and % of total)
Top 4 Companies in China, by Retail Ecommerce Sales Share, 2019-2024 (% of total retail ecommerce sales)

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First Published on Jul 14, 2023

authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Sky Canaves
Senior Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Ruoyan Zeng
Associate Forecasting Analyst