US Ecommerce Forecast 2023

Retail and Ecommerce Trends Finally Normalize, but Consumer Resilience Will Be Tested

Our latest forecast for retail and ecommerce sales in the US shows growth trends normalizing after three tumultuous years. But most top online retailers will struggle to grow over the short term as economic uncertainty takes a toll on consumers. Product category and digital buyer trends highlight opportunities for growth in digital commerce.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for US retail and ecommerce sales over the next five years?

KEY STAT: US retail and ecommerce sales trends will settle back into their pre-pandemic trajectories, with online sales growing by 9.3% in 2023 to reach $1.137 trillion.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. The dust finally settles on US retail.
  3. The ecommerce trend line will stabilize.
  1. Gen Z will push mcommerce toward the tipping point for online sales.
  2. Challenges and challengers aside, Amazon will hold its commanding ecommerce share.
  3. Category growth trends offer a mixed picture of consumer spending priorities.
  1. Key takeaways for retailers and brands:
  2. Sources
  3. Media Gallery

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First Published on Jul 28, 2023


Sky Canaves


Whitney Birdsall
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Ethan Cramer-Flood
Senior Forecasting Writer
Vladimir Hanzlik
Executive Editor
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Louie-Lam
Senior Forecasting Analyst

"Behind the Numbers" Podcast