UK Ecommerce Forecast 2023

Online Sales Still in Decline as Shoppers Return to Stores and Cut Nonessential Spending

Report by Carina Perkins  | UPDATED: Dec 22, 2023

Ecommerce Forecasts 2023

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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
UK retail sales are growing—but that’s mostly down to inflation.
Ecommerce sales are still suffering as shoppers return to stores.
Health, personal care, and beauty is outperforming all other categories.
Amazon’s domination of UK ecommerce sales will continue.
Key takeaways for retailers and brands:
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
UK retail sales are performing better than expected, with consumers still spending despite high inflation—but ecommerce will lose further share this year as shoppers continue returning to stores and cut nonessential spending.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
UK
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
UK retail sales are growing—but that’s mostly down to inflation.
Ecommerce sales are still suffering as shoppers return to stores.
Health, personal care, and beauty is outperforming all other categories.
Amazon’s domination of UK ecommerce sales will continue.
Key takeaways for retailers and brands:
Sources
Media Gallery

Despite high inflation, UK retail sales are performing better than expected as consumers keep spending—albeit with cuts to nonessentials. But ecommerce will lose further share in 2023 as more shoppers return to stores. To continue growing online sales in the face of a shrinking market and Amazon’s ongoing dominance, retailers and brands will need to be innovative and agile.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for UK ecommerce sales over the next five years, and where are the biggest opportunities for growth?

UK Ecommerce Retail Sales, 2019-2027 (billions of £, % change, and % of total retail sales)
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KEY STAT: After last year’s slump, UK ecommerce sales will dip further by 0.6% in 2023. That means ecommerce’s share of total retail sales will fall to 32.0% this year, compared with its peak of 37.6% in 2021.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. UK retail sales are growing—but that’s mostly down to inflation.
  3. Ecommerce sales are still suffering as shoppers return to stores.
  1. Health, personal care, and beauty is outperforming all other categories.
  2. Amazon’s domination of UK ecommerce sales will continue.
  3. Key takeaways for retailers and brands:
  1. Sources
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

UK Ecommerce Retail Sales, 2019-2027 (billions of £, % change, and % of total retail sales)UK Total Retail Sales, 2021-2027 (billions of £ and % change)
What Would UK Internet Users Like Brands to Do to Support Them Through the Cost of Living Crisis? (% of respondents, Oct 2022)UK Retail Ecommerce vs. Non-Ecommerce Sales Share, 2021-2027 (% of total retail sales)
UK Retail Mcommerce Sales, 2019-2025 (billions of £, % change, and % of total retail ecommerce sales)UK Health, Personal Care, and Beauty Ecommerce vs. Non-Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2021-2027 (% change)
UK Health, Personal Care, and Beauty Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2021-2027 (millions of £, % change, and % of total ecommerce sales )UK Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Category, 2021-2027 (billions of £)
UK Amazon, Sainsbury's, and Tesco Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2019-2024 (% change)UK Amazon, Sainsbury's, and Tesco Ecommerce Sales, 2022-2024 (billions of £)

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First Published on Jul 24, 2023

authors

Carina Perkins

Contributors

Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Jasmin Ellis
Forecasting Analyst
Bill Fisher
Principal Analyst, UK
Angela Kim
Senior Researcher