UK Ecommerce Forecast 2023

Online Sales Still in Decline as Shoppers Return to Stores and Cut Nonessential Spending

Despite high inflation, UK retail sales are performing better than expected as consumers keep spending—albeit with cuts to nonessentials. But ecommerce will lose further share in 2023 as more shoppers return to stores. To continue growing online sales in the face of a shrinking market and Amazon’s ongoing dominance, retailers and brands will need to be innovative and agile.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for UK ecommerce sales over the next five years, and where are the biggest opportunities for growth?

KEY STAT: After last year’s slump, UK ecommerce sales will dip further by 0.6% in 2023. That means ecommerce’s share of total retail sales will fall to 32.0% this year, compared with its peak of 37.6% in 2021.

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First Published on Jul 24, 2023


Carina Perkins


Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Jasmin Ellis
Forecasting Analyst
Bill Fisher
Principal Analyst, UK
Angela Kim
Senior Researcher