Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024 Midyear Update

Digital Sales Will Cross $6 Trillion as Stability Settles In Across Core Markets

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  |  Sep 6, 2024
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Executive Summary
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Executive Summary
Retail sales will cross $30 trillion as ecommerce tops $6 trillion
India and a range of smaller countries will deliver the fastest ecommerce growth
More than 50% of retail sales in China will take place online this year
China and the US will account for 70.0% of ecommerce sales, nearly the same as last year
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About This Report
Our expanded retail and ecommerce forecast coverage now includes country-level breakouts for 66 nations around the world. North America, China, and Western Europe continue to drive global outcomes, but a total of 53 countries will have at least $1 billion in ecommerce sales.
Topics
Retail Sales
Ecommerce Sales
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail sales will cross $30 trillion as ecommerce tops $6 trillion
India and a range of smaller countries will deliver the fastest ecommerce growth
More than 50% of retail sales in China will take place online this year
China and the US will account for 70.0% of ecommerce sales, nearly the same as last year
Media Gallery

Middling retail sales growth and healthy-if-unspectacular ecommerce growth are both the new status quo in most major markets. Unexpected highlights still exist, but double-digit growth is increasingly hard to find. Ecommerce penetration is steadily rising once again, but digital’s share grab has become a slow march everywhere other than China.

Key Question: What is the outlook for worldwide, regional, and country-by-country retail and ecommerce sales in 2024 and beyond?

Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2022-2028 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)
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Key Stat: Worldwide ecommerce sales will increase by 8.4% this year—a low figure by the standards of the 2010s, but representative of the new normal for many countries. That increase will translate to nearly $500 billion in new spending.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Retail sales will cross $30 trillion as ecommerce tops $6 trillion
  1. India and a range of smaller countries will deliver the fastest ecommerce growth
  2. More than 50% of retail sales in China will take place online this year
  1. China and the US will account for 70.0% of ecommerce sales, nearly the same as last year
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2022-2028 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)Retail Sales Worldwide, 2022-2028 (trillions and % change)
Retail Sales Growth in North America, Western Europe, and China, 2022-2028 (% change)Retail Ecommerce vs. Physical Retail vs. Total Retail Sales Growth Worldwide, 2022-2028 (% change)
Retail Ecommerce and Total Retail Sales Growth, by Largest Markets Worldwide, 2024 (% change)Top 10 Countries Worldwide, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2024 (% change)
Retail Ecommerce Sales Share of Total Retail Sales in Select Markets Worldwide, 2024 (% of total retail sales)Excluding China, Global Ecommerce Penetration Will Be 12.5% This Year (ecommerce % of total retail sales in China, worldwide, and worldwide excluding China, 2022-2028)
Top 10 Countries Worldwide, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2024 (billions and % change)

authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Cosima Balletti-Thomas
Associate Forecasting Analyst
Paul Briggs
Principal Analyst
Oscar Bruce Jr.
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Sky Canaves
Principal Analyst
Diego Dell’Orco
Vivian Dong
Associate Forecasting Analyst
Iwona Drapala
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Jasmin Ellis
Zach Goldner
Forecasting Analyst
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Penelope Lin
Director, Data Visualization
Wendy Louie-Lam
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Malloy
Director, Reports Editor
Peter Newman
Director, Forecasting
Naomi Rebuelta
Copy Editor
Andrew Spink
Forecasting Analyst
Antonella Yannelli