Western Europe Ecommerce Forecast 2024

Ecommerce Regains Share of Retail Sales as More People Shop on Mobile Devices

Report by Carina Perkins  |  Sep 5, 2024
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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail sales growth is slowing despite an improved economic outlook
Ecommerce is regaining share of retail as online sales accelerate
Mcommerce continues to gain share of online retail sales
Consumers in France and Germany are prioritizing essentials when shopping online 
Amazon continues to dominate ecommerce
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Ecommerce sales have returned to modest growth in Western Europe as the economic outlook brightens and more people embrace the convenience of shopping via mobile phone.
Topics
Ecommerce Sales
Mcommerce
Retail Sales
Western Europe
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail sales growth is slowing despite an improved economic outlook
Ecommerce is regaining share of retail as online sales accelerate
Mcommerce continues to gain share of online retail sales
Consumers in France and Germany are prioritizing essentials when shopping online 
Amazon continues to dominate ecommerce
Sources
Media Gallery

Ecommerce sales have returned to modest growth in Western Europe as the economic outlook brightens in key markets. Following an unprecedented dip in the wake of the pandemic, ecommerce penetration is rising again as people embrace the convenience of shopping via mobile phone and apps from the likes of Shein and Temu.

Key Question: What is the outlook for Western Europe retail and ecommerce sales in 2024 and beyond?

Ecommerce Is Back to Gaining Share of Retail Sales in Western Europe, but Future Gains Will Be Slow(billions of ecommerce sales in Western Europe, % change, and % of total retail sales)
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Key Stat: Ecommerce penetration will reach 12.7% in Western Europe this year. But that remains below the 2021 peak of 14.1%, which won’t be reached again by the end of our forecast period.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Retail sales growth is slowing despite an improved economic outlook
  3. Ecommerce is regaining share of retail as online sales accelerate
  1. Mcommerce continues to gain share of online retail sales
  2. Consumers in France and Germany are prioritizing essentials when shopping online 
  3. Amazon continues to dominate ecommerce
  1. Sources
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Ecommerce Is Back to Gaining Share of Retail Sales in Western Europe, but Future Gains Will Be Slow(billions of ecommerce sales in Western Europe, % change, and % of total retail sales)Retail Sales Growth Is Slowing in Western Europe as Inflation Eases but Consumers Remain Cautious (trillions of retail sales in Western Europe and % change, 2022-2028)
Combined Retail Sales in Western Europe's Five Biggest Markets Will Reach $3.737 Trillion in 2024 (billions in retail sales in select countries in Western Europe, 2024)Retail Sales Will Grow Across the Former EU-5 and Surpass $1 Trillion in France and Germany by 2028 (billions of retail sales in the former EU-5, 2024 vs. 2028)
Spain Leads Western Europe on Ecommerce Growth, but the Rest of the Former EU-5 Countries Lag Behind (% change in retail ecommerce sales in select countries in Western Europe, 2024)Ecommerce Sales in Western Europe's Five Biggest Markets Will Reach $485.64 Billion in 2024 (billions in retail ecommerce sales in Western Europe, by country, 2024)
Ecommerce Sales Will Surpass $250 Billion in the UK and $100 Billion in France and Germany by 2028 (billions of retail ecommerce sales in the former EU-5 countries, 2024 vs. 2028)By the End of 2028, Mobile Devices Will Account for Almost Half of Ecommerce Sales in Western Europe (billions in ecommerce sales in Western Europe, 2022-2028)
Grocery Categories Are Leading Ecommerce Growth in France and Germany as Shoppers Prioritize EssentialsAmazon Share of Retail Ecommerce, Select Countries, 2024 (% of total retail ecommerce sales)
Some of the UK's Biggest Retailers Will Grow Online Sales Faster Than Amazon Between 2024 and 2026 (% change in UK retail ecommerce sales, by retailer, 2024 vs. 2026)

authors

Carina Perkins

Contributors

Paul Briggs
Principal Analyst
Oscar Bruce Jr.
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Sky Canaves
Principal Analyst
Diego Dell’Orco
Jasmin Ellis
Madan Kumar
Copy Editor
Vladimir de Leon
Chart Editor
Peter Newman
Director, Forecasting
Heather Sprung
Senior Editor
Matt Torpey
Senior Chart Editor