US retail and ecommerce sales will maintain stable growth over the next five years, with pockets of opportunity emerging from new digital consumers and mobile-first online shopping trends.
US retail sales will grow at a modest and stable pace through 2028, with ecommerce progressing more than four times faster than in-store sales. Major retailers are returning to online sales growth after a tumultuous period of post-pandemic adjustment. Gen Z consumers and product category trends present key opportunities for growth in digital commerce.
Key Question: What’s the outlook for US retail and ecommerce sales over the next five years?
Key Stat: US ecommerce sales will grow by 8.7% in 2024 to nearly $1.2 trillion, comprising 16.2% of total retail sales.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
The pace of US retail sales growth is picking up gradually
Ecommerce will grow steadily—and more than four times faster than physical retail
Gen Z will make its presence felt as digital shoppers and buyers
Amazon won’t cede its dominance of US ecommerce anytime soon, despite increased competition
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Amazon Is Gaining Category Share With Faster Growth in the Largest Ecommerce Segments (% change YoY in US Amazon retail ecommerce sales vs. total retail ecommerce sales, by category, 2024 )
Amazon Towers Over the Marketplace Competition, While Temu Is Growing Fastest (billions of US ecommerce sales of select retail marketplace platforms and % change, 2024 & 2025)
Amazon Is Gaining Category Share With Faster Growth in the Largest Ecommerce Segments (% change YoY in US Amazon retail ecommerce sales vs. total retail ecommerce sales, by category, 2024 )
Amazon Towers Over the Marketplace Competition, While Temu Is Growing Fastest (billions of US ecommerce sales of select retail marketplace platforms and % change, 2024 & 2025)