UK ecommerce sales growth is stabilizing after years of turbulence. There won’t be a significant shift over the next five years, but modest growth has returned to all major categories—and retailers stand to reap large profits from their ecommerce investments.

Key Question: What is the outlook for UK retail ecommerce sales in 2024 and beyond?

UK Retail Ecommerce Sales Have Recovered From a Post-Pandemic Dip, but Growth Is Plateauing

Key Stat: UK retail ecommerce sales will reach £177.11 billion ($220.22 billion) in 2024, their highest level since 2021. However, ecommerce penetration has plateaued at 30.4%.

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Executive Summary
Retail sales growth is accelerating as the economy recovers
Ecommerce sales are stabilizing as normalcy resumes

Growth is returning across all major ecommerce categories
Amazon dominates ecommerce in the UK, but other players are also enjoying strong growth
Key takeaways for brands and retailers

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UK Retail Ecommerce Sales Have Recovered From a Post-Pandemic Dip, but Growth Is Plateauing UK Retail Sales Growth Will Accelerate Slightly in 2024 but Remain Relatively Subdued Through 2028 (billions in UK retail sales and % change, 2022-2028)

UK Retail Ecommerce Sales Have Recovered From a Post-Pandemic Dip, but Growth Is Plateauing (billions in UK retail ecommerce sales, % change, and % of total retail sales, 2021-2028)After Several Years of Turbulence, Ecommerce and Physical Retail Sales Growth Will Converge (% change in UK ecommerce vs. physical retail sales, 2022-2028)

Ecommerce Won't Gain Any Significant Share of UK Retail Sales Over the Next Five Years (% of total UK retail sales, by channel, 2021-2028)The Fastest Growth in Digital Buyers Will Come From 18- to 24-Year-Olds and Those 65 and Older (millions of UK digital buyers, by age, 2024 & 2028)

Smartphones Will Drive Mcommerce Sales to Almost 60% of UK Ecommerce Sales by 2028 (billions of UK ecommerce sales, by device, 2024-2028)Online Sales Will Rise Across the Major Product Categories, With Further Growth Expected in 2025 (billions in UK retail ecommerce sales, by product category, 2023-2025)

Health, Personal Care, & Beauty Ecommerce Growth Will Slow but Remain in the Double Digits in 2024 (billions in UK health, personal care, & beauty retail ecommerce sales, % change, and % of category retail sales, 2022-2028)Food & Beverage Ecommerce Sales Are Growing, but Online Penetration Will Plateau at Around 10% (billions in UK food & beverage retail ecommerce sales, % change, and % of category retail sales, 2022-2028)

Online Apparel Sales Growth Is Slowing as People Shop in Stores to Avoid Delivery and Return Costs (billions in UK textile, clothing, & footwear retail ecommerce sales, % change, and % of category retail sales, 2022-2028)Amazon Still Dominates UK Ecommerce and Will Account for a Quarter of All Online Sales in 2024 (billions in UK retail ecommerce sales, by retailer, 2024)

Some of the UK's Biggest Retailers Will Grow Online Sales Faster Than Amazon Between 2024 and 2026 (% change in UK retail ecommerce sales, by retailer, 2024 vs. 2026)

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UK Retail Ecommerce Sales Have Recovered From a Post-Pandemic Dip, but Growth Is Plateauing

UK Ecommerce Forecast 2024

Digital Sales Grow Modestly as Ecommerce Penetration Plateaus

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Carina Perkins

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