What to expect during Amazon’s Prime Day sale

The news: We expect Amazon’s Prime Day sales event this week will generate $12.52 billion in worldwide revenues this year, a year-over-year (YoY) gain of 17.0%, per our new forecast.

• That growth is a far cry from the massive 67.8% YoY the retailer generated in 2019 and the 43.0% YoY from 2020 (when the event was held in October).
• But despite economic headwinds that have throttled consumer spending, the projected growth rate is a 9-percentage-point gain from last year’s June event.
• That may be because a significant share of third-party merchants (39%) plan to increase their discounting this year, per a Bobsled Marketing survey. Another 39% plan to maintain the same rate as last year.

An established event: Given the frequency with which consumers shop Amazon, the retailer has an easier time than other merchants promoting its sale. Nearly half, 49%, of Amazon shoppers with knowledge of the sale learned of the event while on Amazon.com or the retailer’s mobile app. Another 28% found out through a TV commercial, and 27% learned from social media, per Numerator.

• Forty-seven percent of internet users plan to make a purchase on Prime Day, per GWI.
• Now that the event is so familiar, Amazon has pivoted from spending on flashy star-studded concerts featuring stars like Ariana Grande and Lady Gaga to building buzz via influencer marketing.

The halo effect: Prime Day typically creates a halo effect as it drives consumers to shop online—both on Amazon and at other retailers, many of which offer their own sales events.

• We expect other merchants’ online sales to jump 17.8% YoY to $5.22 billion during the two-day event. That would be 61.1% higher than the average ecommerce shopping day.
• One retailer that won’t be countering Prime Day is Walmart, a company spokesperson told CNBC. The retailer already hosted Walmart+ Weekend, its own Prime Day-like event for Walmart+ members, from June 2–5. And because it has excess inventory, much of its merchandise is already on sale.
• But Walmart’s event lagged in awareness compared with Prime Day: Only 33% of Walmart+ Weekend shoppers knew of the event before shopping, compared with 94% of Prime Day 2021 shoppers, per Numerator.

The big takeaway: While it may not have the luster it once did, Prime Day remains a massive sales event that will deliver solid third-quarter growth for Amazon and the many merchants that sell on its platform.

“Consumer spending remains solid, despite inflation,” said Andrew Lipsman, eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence. “We expect inflation will actually drive more deal-seeking behavior and generate a bit more excitement about the event this year, which will also benefit from better timing than last year.”

Go further: Read our Prime Day report here.