Executive Summary

If the coronavirus pandemic has produced any winners in the retail sector, digital merchants are among that number.

What is the impact of COVID-19 on retail in Western Europe in 2020?

The coronavirus outbreak has been cataclysmic for Western Europe’s retail sector, as most stores selling nonessential goods were forced to close in March; gradual reopening began in May. We estimate that overall retail sales in the region will drop by 9.9% this year, to $3.776 trillion (€3.372 trillion).

How does Germany’s retail picture compare with Western Europe as a whole?

In Germany, the retail industry looks set to suffer a less dramatic, but still serious, decline. Total retail sales in the country are predicted to fall 8.2% year over year in 2020, from $897.97 billion (€801.98 billion) to $824.05 billion (€735.96 billion).

How much will consumers in Germany spend on ecommerce in 2020?

By contrast, ecommerce sales are on the rise. The strict lockdown led many consumers in Germany to shop more online, or to buy goods like groceries and medicines digitally for the first time. We expect retail ecommerce sales to rise 16.2% this year, and total $92.33 billion (€82.46 billion), compared with $79.47 billion (€70.97 billion) in 2019.

How much of that is mcommerce?

Mobile sales are growing even more quickly than overall digital sales. In 2019, mobile retail purchases in Germany amounted to $31.95 billion (€28.53 billion). In 2020, we expect mobile sales to rise 19.9%, to $38.32 billion (€34.22 billion).

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report highlights our latest forecasts for total retail, ecommerce and mcommerce sales in Germany, and for digital shoppers and buyers. It also looks at the influence of the pandemic and other developments on retail trends.

KEY STAT: Retail ecommerce sales in Germany will grow by an estimated 16.2% in 2020, buoyed largely by the rise in online shopping during the consumer lockdown in March and April.