At first glance, this may look like an undramatic year for social media. Among the major global platforms, Facebook and Instagram will remain firmly at the top in both total revenues and user base, and TikTok will once again be the fastest-growing platform in both areas. But this isn’t the status quo it seems to be. The events of 2022 are reshaping social media in multiple ways.
No. 1: Economic challenges and self-inflicted wounds will weigh on Meta. Ad revenue growth will recover to 8.2% this year after a historic 2.0% decline in 2022, but that won’t be enough to reverse its declining share. Meta’s cut of worldwide digital ad spending peaked at 22.0% in 2021 but will fall to 19.4% this year, per our forecast.
Facebook will grow just 0.3% in worldwide monthly users this year, and its share of internet users will dip under 45% for the first time. Meanwhile, Instagram’s ability to buffer Facebook’s losses is diminishing; although its monthly user base will be up 4.7% this year, its share of worldwide internet users will rise by less than a percentage point, to 28.7%.
No. 2: As Meta falters, ByteDance will cement its rise onto the world’s stage. Ad revenues for ByteDance’s social platforms TikTok and Douyin will increase 24.5% this year, pushing the company to a 5.8% share of worldwide digital ad spending—greater than LinkedIn, Snapchat, Twitter, and YouTube combined. And the combined footprint of the two apps (Douyin in China and TikTok in the rest of the world) will stand at 1.70 billion monthly users in 2023, amounting to 36.5% of worldwide internet users and 45.2% of social network users.
By 2026, Douyin will have almost the same number of users as China’s popular super app, WeChat—another sign of ByteDance’s growing dominance. The threat of US regulation on TikTok still looms, but ByteDance’s massive footprint cannot be ignored.