China Ecommerce 2019

Retail Ecommerce Stays Strong as Geopolitical and Economic Headwinds Dampen Overall Retail Sector

Report by Man-Chung Cheung  | Jun 27, 2019

Global Ecommerce 2019

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Forecasts for seven markets: US, Canada, China, France, Germany, Latin America, UK

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
An Overview of Our Retail and Ecommerce Forecasts
China’s Economic Challenges
Mobile Continues to Be the Top Channel
Alibaba and JD.com Lead in a Crowded Marketplace
The Retreat of Amazon China
Digital Shoppers and Buyers
What’s Shaping Ecommerce in China in 2019?
New Retail as the New Paradigm
Social Commerce Platforms
Over-the-Top Video Commerce
Key Takeaways
eMarketer Interviews
Read Next
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Growth of retail sales in China is declining, due to economic and geopolitical challenges, and will not overtake the US until 2021. But retail ecommerce has continued to flourish in some surprising ways under these current circumstances.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
China
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
An Overview of Our Retail and Ecommerce Forecasts
China’s Economic Challenges
Mobile Continues to Be the Top Channel
Alibaba and JD.com Lead in a Crowded Marketplace
The Retreat of Amazon China
Digital Shoppers and Buyers
What’s Shaping Ecommerce in China in 2019?
New Retail as the New Paradigm
Social Commerce Platforms
Over-the-Top Video Commerce
Key Takeaways
eMarketer Interviews
Read Next
Sources
Media Gallery

Executive Summary

While retail sales in China sputter in the face of economic and geopolitical challenges, ecommerce continues to thrive. Digital commerce players continue to innovate and recalibrate.

How much will retail sales in China grow in 2019?

Retail sales in China will grow 3.5% to $5.291 trillion this year. That’s considerably weaker than 2016’s growth rate of 10.4% and is a continuation of a slowdown that started in 2018. We forecast that growth will not see a rebound until 2021.

How much will consumers in China spend on retail ecommerce in 2019?

In 2019, retail ecommerce sales will expand 27.3%, reaching $1.935 trillion, or 36.6% of total retail sales. We forecast that retail ecommerce sales will maintain strong growth through the end of our forecast in 2023.

Which are the top retail ecommerce sites by sales in China?

Alibaba is the undisputed leader in 2019, taking in 55.9% of retail ecommerce sales. JD.com has a 16.7% share, while upstart Pinduoduo will grow much faster than any other site in the top 10.

What are the key drivers of retail ecommerce sales in China?

While digital buyer penetration is reaching saturation among younger demographics, it still has room to grow among consumers over 35. In rural areas and smaller cities, GDP is growing much faster than in the major city centers, and consumers there will continue to drive growth.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report features our latest forecasts for retail ecommerce, mcommerce, digital buyers and the top ecommerce sites in China—as well as the latest developments in retail, social commerce and consumer behavior.

KEY STAT: China’s retail ecommerce sales in 2019 will grow much faster than total retail, increasing 27.3% year over year to $1.935 trillion. By 2023, retail ecommerce sales will represent 63.9% of total retail sales.

What’s Inside:

Estimates are included for the following areas:

  • Total retail and ecommerce spending
  • Ecommerce by channel
  • Ecommerce by retailer
  • Digital buyer penetration and demographics

Here’s what’s in the full report

3files

Exportable files for easy reading, analysis and sharing.

8charts

Reliable data in simple displays for presentations and quick decision making.

5expert perspectives

Insights from industry and company leaders.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. An Overview of Our Retail and Ecommerce Forecasts
  3. China’s Economic Challenges
  4. Mobile Continues to Be the Top Channel
  5. Alibaba and JD.com Lead in a Crowded Marketplace
  6. The Retreat of Amazon China
  1. Digital Shoppers and Buyers
  2. What’s Shaping Ecommerce in China in 2019?
  3. New Retail as the New Paradigm
  4. Social Commerce Platforms
  5. Over-the-Top Video Commerce
  6. Key Takeaways
  1. eMarketer Interviews
  2. Read Next
  3. Sources
  4. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Digital Buyers in China, by Age, 2019Cross-Border Retail Ecommerce Buyers in China, 2017-2022 (millions, % change and % of digital buyers)
Product Categories in Which Cross-Border Digital Buyers in China Make Cross-Border Digital Purchases, Jan 2019 (% of respondents)Average Spending per Consumer in China, by Product/Service Category, 2017 & 2018 (Chinese yuan renminbi and % change)
Retail Sales Share of Tier 3 Cities and Below in China, 2013-2018 (% of total retail sales)Mcommerce App User Share in China, by City Tier and Platform, Nov 2018 (% of total)
Leading Product Categories that Urban Social Commerce Digital Buyers in China Have Purchased in the Past Year, Oct 2018 (% of respondents)Urban Internet Users in China Who Purchase Select Product Categories via Social Commerce Platforms, by Gender, Oct 2018 (% of respondents in each group)

Interviewed for This Report

Elena Gatti
Azoya
Managing Director, DACH Region
Interviewed May 26, 2019
Frank Lavin
Export Now
CEO and Founder
Interviewed May 25, 2019
Miro Li
Double V. Consulting
Co-Founder
Jeffrey Towson
Guanghua School of Management, Peking University
Professor of Investment
Interviewed May 26, 2019
Michael Zakkour
Tompkins International
Vice President, China/APAC and Global Ecommerce Practices
Interviewed May 28, 2019

authors

Man-Chung Cheung

Contributors

Andrew Lipsman
Principal Analyst
Monica Peart
Senior Director, Forecasting