Even as social media ad spend takes a hit, TikTok’s potential is astounding.
In Thailand, close to half (49.3%) of social network users are already on TikTok. That figure is a bit lower in the US, but will reach 49.1% by the end of 2026, according to our forecast. TikTok’s growth in the US will come in large part from older users. In 2022, the number of US users ages 65 and older nearly doubled, and double-digit growth will persist through 2025.
Remarkably, TikTok’s penetration even in its top markets is significantly lower than its sister app Douyin’s penetration in China, which will reach 77.4% of social users this year.
TikTok probably won’t ever see this type of saturation, especially in the US where Facebook and Instagram will remain relevant for at least a while longer, and even more specifically among older users. But if ByteDance continues to use China as a model for worldwide growth, the app’s retail and advertising potential will keep climbing.
4. A closer look at Latin America