With the holiday season in the rearview mirror, our analysts are already looking ahead to what the rest of this year—including the 2025 holiday season—will look like.
This year will be defined by unpredictability, as President Trump begins his second term during a time of mixed consumer sentiments. Here are four trends our analysts expect will continue in 2025.
“You see a growing split on the haves and have-nots within retailers,” said our analyst Zak Stambor on a recent episode of “Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail.”
In 2024, higher-price retailers like Williams-Sonoma raised guidance ahead of what they expected to be a successful holiday season, while lower-end retailers like Dollar Tree and Dollar General braced for cautious consumers, Stambor said.
US restaurant spend rose by 6.3% YoY over the holidays, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse.
“It's a sign that at least some consumers, probably these higher income consumers, feel pretty decent about spending on something that is purely discretionary,” Stambor said.
Looking ahead: Higher-end and luxury retailers may see opportunities with more confident high-earners this year. Discount retailers will need to remain focused on deals and value in order to get lower-income consumers to spend.
“Once Trump won, people started paying attention to his economic agenda and they started to get worried about inflation again,” said Stambor. “They spent on these big-ticket items that, in other circumstances, they might have held off.”
Electronics spend was up 8.8% YoY while furniture and home goods spend increased by 6.8%, per Adobe Analytics. Experts also projected a rise in auto sales, indicating that consumers may have been looking to get ahead of potential tariffs on these pricey goods.
Looking ahead: There’s a clear divide in how Republicans and Democrats feel about where the economy will head under a second Trump presidency, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. That will lead to more of the mixed messaging about the economy.
Returns jumped 28% YoY this holiday season, per Salesforce. That holiday hangover could last throughout the year, as returns continue to grow in 2025. Total retail return value in the US will cross the $1 trillion mark for the first time this year, per our December 2024 forecast.
Looking ahead: To avoid return headaches, retailers will likely limit policies by shortening windows or offering store credit. They may also look to AI solutions or user-generated content in order to encourage consumers to buy the right size or desired product the first time.
“GenAI shopping assistants and chatbots are going to play a much larger role in holiday sales this year,” predicted our analyst Rachel Wolff.
AI use will happen whether consumers know it or not. Some 99% of US adults have recently used at least one common AI-enabled product, per Gallup and Telescope. But 64% didn’t realize they were using AI.
Looking ahead: Even if the conversation around AI hype quiets, consumers will continue to use the tech. Next holiday season, more chatbots may be integrated into ecommerce without consumers even realizing it.
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