Web publishers can no longer rely on robust growth in nonvideo programmatic digital display

The lifeblood of the publishing industry is flowing much weaker than it once did

Many web publishers have spent much of the past decade attempting to diversify revenues by means such as adding video and native ads to their sites wherever possible and exploring consumer revenues. But, banner ads remain the workhorse of their businesses: There are roughly three times more banner ads for sale across the web than video ad units, according to Sincera data.

For most of the preceding decade, advertiser investment in nonvideo programmatic display was reliably strong, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6% from 2016 to 2020, per our forecast. That crashed to a halt in 2022, when spending in the channel declined. Since then, growth has hovered in the single digits. We expect YoY spending to accelerate gently through the end of our forecast period, reaching 8.9% in 2026.

• However, nonvideo’s share of programmatic display will continue to erode. In 2021, US spending on video and nonvideo programmatic display ads was basically even, at around $55 billion apiece. Today, nonvideo accounts for slightly less than 39% of total programmatic digital display spending. That share will continue to decline, sliding to 36.2% in 2026, as advertisers focus on different formats. “[The banner ad] is a constant that’s worthy of continued investment,” said Aaron Goldman, CMO of Mediaocean. “But it’s not going to be the thing that separates you from your competitors or drives the next hockey stick of growth.”
• Much of the incremental spending set to flow into this channel will not go (directly) to web publishers. Programmatic retail media display ad spending—which is still concentrated in nonvideo formats—will claim a sizable portion of the spend, as both endemic and non-endemic advertisers continue to funnel their budgets into retail media networks (RMNs).
• The current numbers for programmatic display ad spending don’t fully reflect the challenges many web publishers face. Our nonvideo display forecast also includes spending on social channels. While video represents a majority of social media ad spending, advertisers will spend close to $38 billion on nonvideo ads on social networks in 2024.

Read the full report, Web Publisher Monetization 2024.