US BNPL user growth continues through 2028, but slows

Key stat: US buy now, pay later (BNPL) user growth is slowing, plummeting from 97.0% in 2021 to just 4.1% in 2028, according to our forecast.

Beyond the chart:

• This year, we forecast there will be 86.5 million BNPL users in the US, just over 30% of the population.
• Total BNPL payment volume in the US will reach $94.29 billion this year, a 20.8% increase YoY.

Use this chart: Marketers and retailers can use this chart to show the growing market for BNPL services, making it a prime opportunity for brands to integrate BNPL options to attract consumers looking for flexible payment methods. It also could be used to illustrate the need for a shift in marketing strategies among BNPL providers as the landscape matures.

Related EMARKETER reports:

• US Buy Now, Pay Later Forecast 2024 (Subscription required)
• Payments Trends to Watch in H2 2024 (Subscription required)

Note: Buy now, pay later (BNPL) services are defined as installment loan solutions that allow consumers to purchase and finance a product or service and pay in scheduled installments. These services are also known as digital installments, installment lending, and point-of-sale financing. Loan options include no-interest loans, as well as interest-based loans of a predetermined duration. BNPL loans can be accessed at the point-of-sale (online or in-person), usually via a BNPL loan provider's branded app, via a merchant's website or app, or via proximity mobile payment apps like Apple Pay and Google Wallet. Examples include Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna, Zip, and PayPal's BNPL service. Some short-term, no-interest loans can be accessed only at retailers. Examples include Bread Pay and SetPay. Services that provide a revolving line of credit, retailer-branded financing options, closed-loop marketplace financing services, and card-linked installment services are excluded.Less

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of survey and web traffic data from research firms, historical consumer adoption and buying trends, payment adoption trends, reported company data, interviews, demographic and socioeconomic factors, and macroeconomic conditions.