The US ad market soared in December, but will it hold?

The news: The US ad market grew 13.2% in December and 8.5% overall in 2024, per Guideline’s US ad market tracker. December was the second-largest month for US advertising in 2024 behind July, when the Olympics and other sporting events propelled the market to 15.3% growth.

Zooming out: The ad market’s strong end-of-year performance reflects a robust consumer appetite during the holiday season. But the key question is whether that growth will extend into 2025 as economic uncertainties swirl.

• While US holiday sales were better than expected, much of that spending could be attributed to higher-income consumers in a sign that middle- and lower-income households are pulling back on spending.
• The Trump administration’s tariff proposals could also cause consumer spending pullbacks. Prices for key industries like apparel could rise significantly, leading to consumers reducing spending.
• TikTok’s uncertain legal status is also likely to affect overall Q1 2025 ad spending. The app accounted for 4% of US digital ad spending in 2024, per our forecast. While spending could shift to other short-form video platforms and the company has attempted to keep advertisers on board, its on-and-off again status could get some to hold spending and wait.

Yes, but: The new administration’s pick for head of the FTC has signaled that he differs from former chair Lina Khan, who led a charge to significantly increase regulation over the digital advertising industry. While signal loss is still set to ramp up due to changes like the end of third-party cookies on Google Chrome, advertisers may not have to worry about broad shifts to the market due to privacy regulation.