Several retailers raise holiday guidance, pointing to a better-than-expected Q4

The trend: Many prominent retailers have raised their Q4 outlooks in the latest sign that the 2024 holiday season exceeded expectations.

Zooming in:

• Abercrombie & Fitch nudged its net sales growth outlook up to a range of 7%-8%, from its previous guidance of 5%-7%. It also increased its full-year net sales growth outlook to around 15%.
• Amer Sports, parent of Arc’teryx and Salomon footwear, expects full-year 2024 revenue growth at the high end of its previous guidance of 16% to 17%, despite foreign exchange headwinds in Q4. The company also expects its full-year adjusted operating margin to be at the high end of 10.5% to 11.0%.
• American Eagle Outfitters said its quarter-to-date comparable sales through January 4 were up in the “low single digits,” outpacing its recent guidance of 1% growth.
• Lululemon athletica boosted its Q4 revenues forecast range to $3.56 billion-$3.58 billion, representing 11%-12% YoY growth—surpassing analysts’ $3.47 billion estimate. Excluding the 53rd week of FY2024, this equates to 7% YoY growth. The company also raised its diluted EPS forecast to $5.81-$5.85, again outdoing analysts’ $5.66 estimate.
• Nordstrom’s net sales rose 4.9% YoY in the nine-week holiday period ended January 4. It now expects full-year revenue growth of 1.5%-2.5%, up from 0%-1%. It also expects comparable sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5%.

Why it matters: The positive shifts suggest many retailers had a stronger-than-expected holiday season.

• US ecommerce sales rose 8.7% YoY to a record $241.1 billion, per Adobe—not far off our projection of 9.0% ecommerce growth.
• Total holiday retail sales between November 1 and December 24 increased 3.8% YoY, per Mastercard SpendingPulse data. Excluding autos, in-store sales rose 2.9% YoY, compared with a more robust 6.7% jump in ecommerce sales. We expected holiday sales to grow 4.3% last year.

A growing divide: The rising tide didn’t lift all boats. Affluent consumers drove spending, leaving lower- and middle-income shoppers behind. Brands like lululemon and Arc’teryx that cater to higher-income consumers thrived, while those serving lower- and middle-income demographics struggled.

• After a disappointing holiday season, Kohl’s announced plans to close 27 underperforming stores across more than a dozen states to improve profitability.
• Meanwhile, Macy’s expects sales to be at or slightly below its previous guidance of $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion.

Our take: The retail industry’s growing divide between the haves and have-nots, evident throughout the holiday season, is likely to widen further this year. Adding to the challenges, retailers may also contend with the incoming administration’s tariff policies and broader economic agenda.

This article is part of EMARKETER’s client-only subscription Briefings—daily newsletters authored by industry analysts who are experts in marketing, advertising, media, and tech trends. To help you finish 2024 strong, and start 2025 off on the right foot, articles like this one—delivering the latest news and insights—are completely free through January 31, 2025. If you want to learn how to get insights like these delivered to your inbox every day, and get access to our data-driven forecasts, reports, and industry benchmarks, schedule a demo with our sales team.