TikTok is driving US social commerce growth

The insight: TikTok’s wide-ranging efforts to grow its ecommerce business drove social commerce gains in 2024. US sales rose 26% this year to $71.62 billion, per our forecast.

Growth will continue into 2028, albeit at a slower pace. We expect social commerce sales to rise 19.5% next year to $85.58 billion, surpassing $100 billion for the first time in 2026.

TikTok Shop drives adoption: As it did last year, TikTok Shop dominated the social commerce conversation in 2024. The platform’s popularity with Gen Z shoppers, investments in live shopping, and well-timed promotional events that coincided with Amazon’s July and October Prime sales put TikTok on the path to achieve its ambitious target of $17.5 billion in US GMV.

• TikTok Shop’s gross sales have topped $1 billion monthly since July, per The Information—indicating that its efforts to woo shoppers with cheap products, steep discounts, and engaging content are driving more impulse purchases.
• Roughly half (49.7%) of social shoppers on TikTok buy something from the platform at least once per month—more frequently than on Facebook, Instagram, or Pinterest, per our March US Social Commerce survey.

That said, despite TikTok Shop’s inroads, its momentum could quickly be halted should the app be banned—although President-elect Donald Trump’s about-face on the issue could lead to a reprieve. A ban would put a considerable damper on social commerce growth, given that the platform is driving the bulk of sales.

Barriers to growth: While social commerce adoption is slowly rising, the majority of US shoppers are more likely to rely on social media for inspiration rather than to make purchases— due to distrust in both the items for sale and the platforms themselves.

• Roughly three-quarters of shoppers browse social commerce platforms but prefer to buy through retailers’ websites, mainly because of trust and security concerns, according to a survey by AfterShip and Ipsos.
• More than half (53%) of US consumers distrust products sold through social media, per Aibuy’s 2023 Social Media Shopping Report—a particular problem for TikTok Shop, which struggled to contain a rash of counterfeit goods in the early months of its US launch.

Consumers’ lack of confidence in social buying has pushed some companies—like Meta and Pinterest—to focus more squarely on shopping ads and other forms of shoppable content rather than pushing shoppers to transact on their platforms. Meta and Pinterest—along with TikTok and Snapchat—have also inked deals with Amazon to let users purchase products from the latter’s ads without leaving their apps, letting the platforms capitalize on the strong trust consumers have for the retailer.

Our take: Social commerce’s growth over the next few years will depend largely on whether TikTok can escape a ban and whether social platforms can build enough trust with consumers to convince them to share their addresses and payment details in exchange for the gratification of an impulse purchase.

Go further: Check out our US Social Commerce Forecast, and reports on Consumer Approaches Toward Social Commerce and 4 Charts on Social Buying Habits.

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