The rise of grocery brings a fundamental shift in the ecommerce landscape

The future of ecommerce is grocery. Historically, three categories led the US ecommerce market: apparel and accessories, computer and consumer electronics, and furniture and home furnishings. But in recent years, growth has been fueled by essential goods, including food and beverage items, personal care products, and household supplies. This shift will take grocery to the top of the four major ecommerce categories by 2026.

Key stat: Digital grocery sales will account for 19.0% of US ecommerce sales in 2026, surpassing apparel and accessories as the largest ecommerce category.

There’s still a significant opportunity for ecommerce sellers. Grocery is the largest retail category (excluding auto and fuel). Its offline sales are much larger than any of the other major ecommerce categories. While most grocery sales will continue to occur offline, the steady uptick of online sales will bring billions of dollars into the ecommerce market in the coming years.

In the past two years, inflation has been a primary contributor to digital grocery sales growth. Last year, digital grocery sales grew 18.4%, aided by the price of online grocery products growing an average of 7.5% YoY between January and November, according to Adobe’s Digital Price Index. In 2022, sales increased 19.5%, with a monthly average price increase of 11.7% YoY.

In 2024, inflation will cool, but digital grocery sales will still increase by 17.4%. Compared with recent years, we expect more of this growth will come from increased purchase volume, not price increases.

A note about our digital grocery forecast: Our forecast includes the online sale of all items that consumers regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Online sales can be fulfilled via any channel, including doorstep delivery (e.g., Instacart, Amazon Fresh), “ship to home” (e.g., Amazon.com), or click and collect (e.g., curbside pickup, in-store pickup).