Resale volumes will grow more than twice as fast as total US retail sales this year

The forecast: We expect US total resale volume to grow 7.6% year-over-year (YoY) this year to $110.92 billion, a significant leap from the 2.6% YoY decline last year, according to our new forecast.

• That’s more than double the 3.3% growth that we expect from total retail sales this year.
• Our forecast expects ecommerce resale will account for 74.6% of total US resale volume this year, and that share will continue to grow slightly through 2026.
• The estimate dovetails with a bullish forecast in a new thredUP report that expects fashion online resale sales to reach $38 billion by 2027. Our US Fashion Online Resale Platform Sales forecast, featured in our new US Online Fashion Resale report, expects sales to reach nearly $24 billion by 2026, but, unlike thredUP’s forecast, excludes general marketplaces like eBay and Facebook Marketplace.

Behind the numbers: A confluence of factors is making resale more attractive, including the effects of inflation, concerns over sustainability, as well as the growing availability of secondhand goods.

• Resale enables shoppers to stretch their wallets. Roughly 92% of shoppers said saving money is a reason to buy resale, per a May 2022 Morning Consult poll. And 30% of Gen Z choose secondhand to afford higher-end brands, according to thredUP.
• Sustainability concerns are driving consumers to secondhand goods. Forty-seven percent of Gen Z shoppers refuse to buy from non-sustainable apparel brands and retailers, up 11 percentage points from just two years ago, per thredUP.
• Buying secondhand has gone mainstream. Fifty-two percent of consumers shopped secondhand apparel in 2022, per thredUP.
• The number of retailers with resale programs keeps growing. Among the companies featured in thredUP’s Recommerce 100 ranking of retailers based on the number of secondhand items they have listed, 72 were launched in either 2022 or 2023, including Canada Goose, J.Crew, and Kate Spade. Only seven were launched before 2021.

Where consumers shop: Online channels account for the majority of resale volume because they provide shoppers with access to a significantly wider selection of inventory than they can find offline.

• eBay and Facebook are the two most popular platforms that consumers have used to purchase secondhand goods, per Morning Consult.
• However, other platforms are seeking ways to attract more buyers (and sellers). For example, Poshmark on Wednesday launched Posh Shows, which allows consumers to livestream on the company’s platform.

The big takeaway: There is no shortage of resale platforms and “resale as a service” providers that make it relatively straightforward for brands to enter the resale market.

• Doing so is a simple way to demonstrate a commitment to sustainability, appeal to cost-conscious consumers, and drive incremental revenues.

Go further: Read our US Resale Forecast 2023 report.

This article originally appeared in Insider Intelligence's Retail & Ecommerce Briefing—a daily recap of top stories reshaping the retail industry. Subscribe to have more hard-hitting takeaways delivered to your inbox daily.

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