McDonald’s disappointing results highlight the challenges of QSRs’ value meal strategies

The trend: Restaurant-goers are hungry for value, with 75% of adults saying they’d consider a daily special, discount, or value promotion when visiting a quick-service restaurant, snack shop, deli, or coffee shop, according to the National Restaurant Association’s State of the Restaurant Industry 2025 report.

• To attract these price-conscious diners, 47% of restaurant operators plan to offer more deals and discounts this year, down slightly from 53% last year.
• Even as fewer operators lean into value promotions, the demand is clear—95% of operators say diners have become more value-conscious, signaling that affordability remains a key factor in driving traffic.

Price wars: Roughly 2 in 5 (41%) low-income consumers are pulling back on eating dinner at a fast food restaurant, per Ipsos.

• The macroeconomic pressures squeezing those diners are creating industrywide challenges, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski noted during the company’s earnings call.
• To attract those customers, McDonald’s, Starbucks and others have rolled out meal deals in a price war. Several chains, including McDonald’s—which launched its McValue platform that includes a new “Buy One, Add One for $1” option alongside its $5 meal deal—Taco Bell, and Wendy’s, are doubling down on the strategy this year.

The McDonald’s example: McDonald’s Q4 disappointing results show the challenges of the value-focused approach.

• The chain’s revenues were $6.39 billion, which was roughly flat YoY, and slightly short of the $6.44 billion analysts expected.
• McDonald’s US same-store sales fell 1.4% YoY, more than the 0.6% decline analysts expected.
• While McDonald’s reported a slight uptick in traffic, customers spent less per visit in the quarter and steered clear of higher-priced items. Even with the $5 meal deal, the average check on those orders still topped $10, highlighting a shift toward value-driven spending as diners look to stretch their dollars.

Beyond economic pressures, McDonald’s US sales took a hit from a fatal E. coli outbreak in October that the CDC tied to Quarter Pounders. The situation had a direct impact on traffic and sales—McDonald’s monthly visits fell 0.3% YoY in October, while the overall QSR industry saw a 0.3% YoY increase, per Placer.ai. Despite the setback, McDonald’s expects US sales to rebound by early Q2.

Our take: With 41% of low-income households struggling to manage their finances, per Ipsos, some QSRs could be in for a tough year—even with a sharp focus on value meals. After all, those offers only work if they drive diners to add full-price items to their orders. If budget-conscious diners stick strictly to discounts, it could put pressure on margins and limit the effectiveness of the value-driven approach.