Growth converges—and stalls—for ecommerce and total retail worldwide

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Worldwide, retail sales growth has rebounded after taking a dive in 2020, per our forecast. Though growth rates won’t return to their pre-pandemic levels, they will stay steady through 2026. Meanwhile, ecommerce sales growth has decelerated after a few banner years, falling to single digits from 2022 through the end of our forecast period.

Beyond the chart: As the growth gap between total retail and retail ecommerce sales begins to shrink, retailers should focus on key emerging markets, per our 2023 “Global Retail Ecommerce Forecast” report. India and Indonesia hold promise as they are still in high-growth mode, unlike the UK, which is in an extended slump.

That said, the US has become a more reliable growth driver as one of the only mature markets that will see a double-digit increase in ecommerce sales this year.

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Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.