Global Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2023

Welcome to the Slower-Growth New Normal

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  | Feb 21, 2023
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Executive Summary
Global ecommerce growth rates are now in the single digits.
In 2023, total retail sales growth worldwide will muddle through at just under 4%.
The gap between ecommerce sales growth and retail sales growth has shrunk.
Ecommerce’s share of total retail was nearly flat from 2021 to 2022, an unprecedented outcome.
Southeast Asia will post the fastest ecommerce growth of any region for the third year in a row.
Five countries from Southeast Asia will make the top 10 list for fastest ecommerce growth.
Ecommerce lost ground in a dozen countries last year but will regain momentum everywhere in 2023.
China’s ecommerce growth has slowed, but it remains utterly dominant in terms of overall sales.
Several major markets will do relatively well in 2023, not least the US.
Marketers and retailers should recalibrate expectations then seek out growth hotspots.
Media Gallery
About This Report
Ecommerce sales worldwide grew at the slowest rate on record in 2022. Although 2023 is in line for a rebound, it won’t be a major spike. The era of annual double-digit booms is over, but several countries will still produce standout growth.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Global ecommerce growth rates are now in the single digits.
In 2023, total retail sales growth worldwide will muddle through at just under 4%.
The gap between ecommerce sales growth and retail sales growth has shrunk.
Ecommerce’s share of total retail was nearly flat from 2021 to 2022, an unprecedented outcome.
Southeast Asia will post the fastest ecommerce growth of any region for the third year in a row.
Five countries from Southeast Asia will make the top 10 list for fastest ecommerce growth.
Ecommerce lost ground in a dozen countries last year but will regain momentum everywhere in 2023.
China’s ecommerce growth has slowed, but it remains utterly dominant in terms of overall sales.
Several major markets will do relatively well in 2023, not least the US.
Marketers and retailers should recalibrate expectations then seek out growth hotspots.
Media Gallery

Executive Summary

Ecommerce growth around the world has decelerated precipitously since the pandemic-driven boom of 2020. Last year, digital shopping lost ground to brick-and-mortar in several major markets. This year will be slightly better for digital retailers, but the boom times of the 2010s are not coming back.

Key Question: Following years of volatility, how will ecommerce fare globally and country by country over the next few years?

Retail Sales Growth and Retail Ecommerce* Sales Growth Worldwide, 2015-2026 (% change)
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KEY STAT: Retail ecommerce sales worldwide will grow by 8.9% this year. After over a decade of ecommerce growth vastly outperforming overall retail sales growth, the gap between the two will be much reduced going forward.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Global ecommerce growth rates are now in the single digits.
  3. In 2023, total retail sales growth worldwide will muddle through at just under 4%.
  4. The gap between ecommerce sales growth and retail sales growth has shrunk.
  1. Ecommerce’s share of total retail was nearly flat from 2021 to 2022, an unprecedented outcome.
  2. Southeast Asia will post the fastest ecommerce growth of any region for the third year in a row.
  3. Five countries from Southeast Asia will make the top 10 list for fastest ecommerce growth.
  4. Ecommerce lost ground in a dozen countries last year but will regain momentum everywhere in 2023.
  1. China’s ecommerce growth has slowed, but it remains utterly dominant in terms of overall sales.
  2. Several major markets will do relatively well in 2023, not least the US.
  3. Marketers and retailers should recalibrate expectations then seek out growth hotspots.
  4. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Sales Growth and Retail Ecommerce* Sales Growth Worldwide, 2015-2026 (% change)Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2021-2026 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)
Total Retail Sales Worldwide, 2021-2026 (trillions and % change)Retail Ecommerce Share of Total Retail Sales Worldwide, 2015-2026 (% of retail sales)
Total Retail and Retail Ecommerce* Sales Growth Worldwide, by Region, 2023 (% change)Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2023 (% change)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce as a Share of Total Retail Sales, 2023 (% of total retail sales)Retail Ecommerce Sales in China* and the US, 2020-2026 (trillions)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2023 (billions and % change)

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Download
Report
The One-Pager
Spreadsheet
Deck
Share
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Global ecommerce growth rates are now in the single digits.
In 2023, total retail sales growth worldwide will muddle through at just under 4%.
The gap between ecommerce sales growth and retail sales growth has shrunk.
Ecommerce’s share of total retail was nearly flat from 2021 to 2022, an unprecedented outcome.
Southeast Asia will post the fastest ecommerce growth of any region for the third year in a row.
Five countries from Southeast Asia will make the top 10 list for fastest ecommerce growth.
Ecommerce lost ground in a dozen countries last year but will regain momentum everywhere in 2023.
China’s ecommerce growth has slowed, but it remains utterly dominant in terms of overall sales.
Several major markets will do relatively well in 2023, not least the US.
Marketers and retailers should recalibrate expectations then seek out growth hotspots.
Media Gallery
About This Report
Ecommerce sales worldwide grew at the slowest rate on record in 2022. Although 2023 is in line for a rebound, it won’t be a major spike. The era of annual double-digit booms is over, but several countries will still produce standout growth.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Global ecommerce growth rates are now in the single digits.
In 2023, total retail sales growth worldwide will muddle through at just under 4%.
The gap between ecommerce sales growth and retail sales growth has shrunk.
Ecommerce’s share of total retail was nearly flat from 2021 to 2022, an unprecedented outcome.
Southeast Asia will post the fastest ecommerce growth of any region for the third year in a row.
Five countries from Southeast Asia will make the top 10 list for fastest ecommerce growth.
Ecommerce lost ground in a dozen countries last year but will regain momentum everywhere in 2023.
China’s ecommerce growth has slowed, but it remains utterly dominant in terms of overall sales.
Several major markets will do relatively well in 2023, not least the US.
Marketers and retailers should recalibrate expectations then seek out growth hotspots.
Media Gallery
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authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Oscar Bruce Jr.
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Daniel Decea
Researcher, Financial Services
Zach Goldner
Forecasting Analyst
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Andrew Lipsman
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Andrew Spink
Forecasting Analyst