The Cyber Five remain vitally important, even as the period’s overall share of sales continues to wane

The expectations: Consumers will be sharply focused on finding value this holiday season, which is why marquee promotional days such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday will be incredibly important.

• Thirty-six percent of US consumers are poised to shop on Black Friday, and 34% expect to make a purchase on Cyber Monday, per YouGov. Those shares outpace other key shopping dates such as Amazon Prime Day (32%) and Labor Day (12%).
• We expect Cyber Five retail ecommerce sales to grow 5.6% year over year (YoY) this year. That would be the fourth straight year that online sales accelerated during the crucial stretch of the holiday season and the greatest percentage gain for Cyber Five sales since 2020.
• Our expectations dovetail with Bain’s forecast, which expects overall retail sales from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday to grow about 5% to reach $75 billion for the first time.

Putting the Cyber Five in context: This holiday retail season is longer than ever, with online holiday shopping activity spread across the calendar. As a result, we expect the Cyber Five will account for just 15.5% of total holiday ecommerce sales this year. That would continue the stretch’s ongoing decline from its 20.0% peak in 2019.

• Best Buy didn’t even wait until Q4 to launch the first of its promotions this year.
• Amazon, Target, and Walmart are launching holiday promotions in early October.

Even so, Cyber Monday and Black Friday will still be the two biggest online shopping days of the year. We expect Cyber Monday ecommerce sales will grow 7.8% YoY to $13.93 billion, and Black Friday ecommerce sales will increase 5.5% to $10.76 billion.

Our take: There are growing reasons for retailers to be optimistic about both the Cyber Five and the broader holiday season.

• The labor market gained steam in September. Businesses added 254,000 jobs in September—well ahead of the 150,000 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected, and the largest monthly increase since March, per the US Labor Department.
• Wages are up, inflation is down. Average hourly wages were up 4.0% YoY in September, easily outpacing the 2.5% inflation rate.
• Consumers feel good. US consumer sentiment rose in late September to a five-month high in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. The cut was a powerful signal that the Fed has reached the end of its war over inflation and consumers appear to have taken note as their views of the economy over the coming year were the most optimistic since March and, more importantly, their outlooks for their own financial situations hit a four-month high.

Moreover, the International Longshoremen’s Association agreed to suspend the strike that closed down major ports on the East and Gulf Coasts, removing one major challenge that could have derailed the economy.

However, there is still significantly more uncertainty than usual this holiday season thanks to factors such as the presidential election in early November and the shorter-than-normal period between Thanksgiving and Christmas. That’s why retailers are wise to get a head start on holiday promotions sooner rather than later.

Go further: Read our Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks: Q4 2024 report.