Amazon Prime Day is a bellwether for the 2023 holiday season

Prime Day’s performance will be an early predictor of holiday season ecommerce demand—at the product category level and for specific merchandise. Retailers and brands should pay close attention.

We predict Prime Day will surpass $8 billion in US ecommerce sales over the two-day period.

• Prime Day sales growth correlates strongly with overall holiday ecommerce performance. Over the past three years, Amazon Prime Day sales growth has closely aligned with holiday season ecommerce sales growth. During the 2020 event, Prime Day’s sales growth of 42.8% YoY closely mirrored the holiday season’s 38.1% increase. And both the 2021 and 2022 events corresponded with the holiday season in terms of sales growth, with rates in the high single to low double digits.
• Prime Day’s back-to-school deals offer an early test for category and product demand. While Prime Day sales skew toward seasonally relevant products like summer apparel and camping gear, the event is also popular for early back-to-school shopping. If certain types of apparel, consumer electronics, and small appliances pick up momentum, it could bode well for the holidays.
• Computer and consumer electronics is the category to watch most closely. This important holiday category, which has been hit by slowing demand since its pandemic-induced peak, will eventually turn the corner. Prime Day could prove to be that inflection point.