Affiliate marketing is more visible among marketers thanks to inroads it has made into the creator economy, and more recently into connected TV (CTV) and commerce media. But that visibility—combined with some unforgiving changes made by Google and more sophisticated users—has strained some legacy players.
Key Question: What’s going to drive the next phase of affiliate marketing’s growth?
Key Stat: We forecast US affiliate marketing ad spending to grow at a double-digit annual rate for the next two years and to exceed $15 billion in 2028.
Executive Summary
Affiliate continues to inch past its reputation as a bottom-funnel, tactical marketing channel. Advertisers can now leverage affiliate marketing in more places and for many use cases. That flexibility will help power double-digit ad spending growth in 2025 and 2026.
Newer, smaller players are gathering real momentum. The healthy advertising growth we forecast for the next couple of years will be partly driven by surges from smaller, relatively new category entrants.
Moves by Google are helping this transition along. Earlier this year, Google’s “Helpful Content Update” and its “Site Reputation Abuse” update to its spam policy resulted in a sharp decline in traffic to several properties. Today, some publishers remain badly behind their audience and revenue projections. Many of them are talking more seriously than ever about building a strategy less reliant on search.
Affiliatemarketingis entering a period of data stratification. A growing number of affiliate players can offer advertisers the ad targeting, personalization, and customization capabilities they’re accustomed to using in other areas of their media spending. While the success of those players could raise affiliate’s stature, it could also place greater pressure on publishers that cannot do the same.
Consumers are getting smarter. Is that a good thing? Sophisticated, choosy shoppers are, in some ways, the lifeblood of the affiliate marketing sector. Yet their increasing savvy is proving to be a double-edged sword that is cutting into advertisers’ and publishers’ margins.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Why affiliate marketing is more visible than ever
Affiliate marketing continues to insinuate itself into more corners of media
Newer, smaller players are gathering real momentum
Changes at Google and TikTok helped drive a shift among publishers
Affiliate is entering a period of data stratification
More discerning shoppers are a challenge for advertisers and publishers
Retail media and commerce media loom as threats to incremental growth
Head of Affiliate and Performance Partnerships, North America
Interviewed July 24, 2024
Michael McNerney
Martech Record
Publisher
Interviewed July 19, 2024
Tricia Meyer
The Performance Marketing Association
Executive Director
Interviewed July 17, 2024
Kristi O’Brien
General Manager, Brand Platform
LTK
Interviewed August 5, 2024
Rob Schab
Levanta
Co-Founder and CMO
Interviewed August 7, 2024
Amalia Thomas
CJ
Executive Vice President, Client Development, North America and Network Compliance
Interviewed August 5, 2024
Lacie Thompson
New Engen
Chief Growth Officer
Interviewed July 15, 2024
Heather Wheeler
The Krazy Coupon Lady
Co-Founder and Co-CEO
Interviewed August 8, 2024
Charles Wolrich
Bullwhip
Co-Founder and COO
Interviewed July 24, 2024
David Yovanno
Impact.com
CEO
Interviewed July 11, 2024
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US Affiliate Marketing Spending Will Exceed $10 Billion for the First Time in 2024 (billions in US affiliate marketing spending and % change, 2023-2028)
US Affiliate Marketing Spending Will Exceed $10 Billion for the First Time in 2024 (billions in US affiliate marketing spending and % change, 2023-2028)
Advertisers' Affiliate Gross Revenue Growth Was Negative for 11 Months Straight (% change in US retail affiliate marketing gross revenues YoY, June 2023-May 2024)
Clicks and Conversion Rates Were Down for Most of 2023 and H1 2024 (% change in US retail affiliate marketing clicks and conversion rates YoY, Jan 2023-May 2024)
The 3 Largest Sources of Affiliate Actions Lost Share From H1 2023 to H1 2024 (% of total affiliate actions worldwide, by publisher type, H1 2023 & H1 2024)
Content Publishers' Affiliate Revenues Fell at Double-Digit Rates in Q2 2024 (% change in US content publisher retail affiliate marketing revenues YoY, July 2023-June 2024)
Data-Rich Publishers Are Seeing Significant Boosts in Affiliate Marketing Conversion Rates (% change in US affiliate marketing conversion rate YoY, by publisher type, H1 2024)
Coupons Are Driving a Bigger Share of Affiliate Sales for Every Publisher Type, Except One (% of US affiliate sales including a coupon, by publisher type, H1 2023 & H1 2024)
US Affiliate Marketing Spending Will Exceed $10 Billion for the First Time in 2024 (billions in US affiliate marketing spending and % change, 2023-2028)
Advertisers' Affiliate Gross Revenue Growth Was Negative for 11 Months Straight (% change in US retail affiliate marketing gross revenues YoY, June 2023-May 2024)
Clicks and Conversion Rates Were Down for Most of 2023 and H1 2024 (% change in US retail affiliate marketing clicks and conversion rates YoY, Jan 2023-May 2024)
The 3 Largest Sources of Affiliate Actions Lost Share From H1 2023 to H1 2024 (% of total affiliate actions worldwide, by publisher type, H1 2023 & H1 2024)
Content Publishers' Affiliate Revenues Fell at Double-Digit Rates in Q2 2024 (% change in US content publisher retail affiliate marketing revenues YoY, July 2023-June 2024)
Data-Rich Publishers Are Seeing Significant Boosts in Affiliate Marketing Conversion Rates (% change in US affiliate marketing conversion rate YoY, by publisher type, H1 2024)
Coupons Are Driving a Bigger Share of Affiliate Sales for Every Publisher Type, Except One (% of US affiliate sales including a coupon, by publisher type, H1 2023 & H1 2024)