Affiliate Marketing 2024

As Google Shifts, a Schism Forms Between Data Haves and Have-Nots

Affiliate marketing is more visible among marketers thanks to inroads it has made into the creator economy, and more recently into connected TV (CTV) and commerce media. But that visibility—combined with some unforgiving changes made by Google and more sophisticated users—has strained some legacy players.

Key Question: What’s going to drive the next phase of affiliate marketing’s growth?

Key Stat: We forecast US affiliate marketing ad spending to grow at a double-digit annual rate for the next two years and to exceed $15 billion in 2028.

Executive Summary

  • Affiliate continues to inch past its reputation as a bottom-funnel, tactical marketing channel. Advertisers can now leverage affiliate marketing in more places and for many use cases. That flexibility will help power double-digit ad spending growth in 2025 and 2026.
  • Newer, smaller players are gathering real momentum. The healthy advertising growth we forecast for the next couple of years will be partly driven by surges from smaller, relatively new category entrants.
  • Moves by Google are helping this transition along. Earlier this year, Google’s “Helpful Content Update” and its “Site Reputation Abuse” update to its spam policy resulted in a sharp decline in traffic to several properties. Today, some publishers remain badly behind their audience and revenue projections. Many of them are talking more seriously than ever about building a strategy less reliant on search.
  • Affiliate marketing is entering a period of data stratification. A growing number of affiliate players can offer advertisers the ad targeting, personalization, and customization capabilities they’re accustomed to using in other areas of their media spending. While the success of those players could raise affiliate’s stature, it could also place greater pressure on publishers that cannot do the same.
  • Consumers are getting smarter. Is that a good thing? Sophisticated, choosy shoppers are, in some ways, the lifeblood of the affiliate marketing sector. Yet their increasing savvy is proving to be a double-edged sword that is cutting into advertisers’ and publishers’ margins.

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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. Why affiliate marketing is more visible than ever
    3. Affiliate marketing continues to insinuate itself into more corners of media
    4. Newer, smaller players are gathering real momentum
    1. Changes at Google and TikTok helped drive a shift among publishers
    2. Affiliate is entering a period of data stratification
    3. More discerning shoppers are a challenge for advertisers and publishers
    4. Retail media and commerce media loom as threats to incremental growth
    1. EMARKETER Interviews
    2. Sources
    3. Media Gallery

    Interviewed for This Report

    Tristan Barnum
    Wildfire Systems
    CMO
    Interviewed August 2, 2024
    Vikki Danielson
    tvScientific
    Director, Growth and Partnerships
    Interviewed July 22, 2024
    Chris George
    Sovrn
    President
    Interviewed July 18, 2024
    Matt Gilbert
    Partnerize
    CEO
    Interviewed August 12, 2024
    Stephanie Harris
    CEO
    PartnerCentric
    Interviewed August 6, 2024
    Carl Kalapesi
    Rakuten Rewards
    Senior Vice President, Sales and Revenue
    Interviewed July 31, 2024
    Patricia Marange
    Mindshare
    Head of Affiliate Marketing and Partnerships
    Interviewed August 6, 2024
    Jade Mayberry
    Dentsu
    Head of Affiliate and Performance Partnerships, North America
    Interviewed July 24, 2024
    Michael McNerney
    Martech Record
    Publisher
    Interviewed July 19, 2024
    Tricia Meyer
    The Performance Marketing Association
    Executive Director
    Interviewed July 17, 2024
    Kristi O’Brien
    General Manager, Brand Platform
    LTK
    Interviewed August 5, 2024
    Rob Schab
    Levanta
    Co-Founder and CMO
    Interviewed August 7, 2024
    Amalia Thomas
    CJ
    Executive Vice President, Client Development, North America and Network Compliance
    Interviewed August 5, 2024
    Lacie Thompson
    New Engen
    Chief Growth Officer
    Interviewed July 15, 2024
    Heather Wheeler
    The Krazy Coupon Lady
    Co-Founder and Co-CEO
    Interviewed August 8, 2024
    Charles Wolrich
    Bullwhip
    Co-Founder and COO
    Interviewed July 24, 2024
    David Yovanno
    Impact.com
    CEO
    Interviewed July 11, 2024

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    authors

    Max Willens

    Contributors

    Rahul Chadha
    Vladimir de Leon
    Chart Editor
    Kyndall Krist
    Senior Copy Editor
    Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf
    Senior Analyst, Digital Advertising & Media
    Peter Newman
    Director, Forecasting
    Penelope Lin
    Director, Data Visualization
    Tracy Tang
    Senior Researcher
    Emman Velasco
    Chart Editor
    Yoram Wurmser
    Principal Analyst

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