It won’t get much better than low single digits going forward. The next few years will see low growth by historic standards but not to a disastrous extent.
The sputtering of China’s economic engine means the growth figures of yesteryear are likely gone for good. China’s multidecade boom led to global retail growth figures that regularly topped 6%. Those days are over for China, and although India is still a growth driver, it won’t be enough to make up for China’s sluggishness.
We increased our latest 2022 growth estimates, but reality will set in this year. Six months ago, we projected a 4.7% gain for retail sales in 2022. Now we put that figure at 6.9% thanks (mainly) to inflation and (less so) to lingering post-pandemic pro-spending behavior. Those factors will have less of an effect on total retail sales in 2023.
We expect a stable—if lackluster—economic environment in 2023 with retail growth to match. The global economy is likely set for a soft landing, inflation is cooling off, and the worst is seemingly over in Europe and China. As a result, we anticipate a steady retail environment for the next several years across most regions of the world.