While YouTube’s ad revenue is smaller than what Meta will generate from Reels on Facebook and Instagram, it’s neck and neck with TikTok, and far outpaces streaming platforms.
“We spend so much time talking about Netflix and Disney+, but neither of those companies will break a billion dollars in ad revenues this year, according to our forecast,” our analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf said on a recent episode of the “Behind the Numbers” podcast. “YouTube gets two thumbs up.”
YouTube’s Q2 ad revenues of $8.7 billion didn’t hit investors’ projections, but they’re still up 13% compared to last year. Our forecast projects YouTube to grow US ad revenue even faster next year (15.2% versus this year’s 12.1%).
Shorts are gaining views, but are they gaining revenue?
One of the biggest risks to YouTube’s ad revenue is Instagram Reels and TikTok. YouTube’s emphasis on Shorts suggests the platform is keenly aware that it is vulnerable to social video competitors, our analysts noted.
Google and YouTube parent Alphabet hasn’t released substantial data on how Shorts is performing, said Mitchell-Wolf.
“I would love to have a more substantive conversation about it every quarter,” she said. “The Google executives are like, ‘We're pleased with Shorts monetization progress,’ Great, glad to hear you're pleased. But [that doesn’t give us] much concrete to comment on.”
It’s safe to say Shorts is helping increase Youtube viewership, Mitchell-Wolf said. The platform reports that YouTube Shorts are watched by over 1.5 billion signed-in users each month, clocking more than 30 billion daily views.
“I personally have noticed that Shorts are creeping into my YouTube feed]” she said. “Often there will be a random Short that pops up when the current video I selected is finished. So that'll juice user numbers pretty nicely for YouTube.”
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