Retail ecommerce has entered a new era of slow and steady growth in most countries. This status quo replaces the previous era of spectacular growth and jarring declines.
Total retail and ecommerce sales will grow relatively modestly in 2024 by historic standards. However, there will be fewer low points around the world and fewer wild fluctuations. Growth will be steady in the coming years, with notable spikes in a handful of emerging markets.
Key Question: What is the outlook for worldwide and country-by-country retail and ecommerce sales in 2024 and beyond?
Key Stat: Ecommerce sales will cross the $6 trillion mark this year, and 20.1% of all retail sales will be conducted digitally. Excluding China from the calculus, the worldwide ecommerce share will be 12.4%.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
As global economies stabilize, so will retail and ecommerce sales
Stability means fewer growth standouts, but India and Latin America are still going strong
The US, China, and Western Europe lead the rest of the world in total sales by a wide margin
Ecommerce penetration is once again increasing almost everywhere
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China Will Account for Just Over Half of All Ecommerce Sales Worldwide in 2024 (China*, US, and Western Europe % of worldwide ecommerce sales, 2016-2027)
Ecommerce Penetration Has Declined in Western Europe Since 2021, but It Will Edge Up This Year (ecommerce % of total retail sales, by country in Western Europe, 2020-2025)
China Will Account for Just Over Half of All Ecommerce Sales Worldwide in 2024 (China*, US, and Western Europe % of worldwide ecommerce sales, 2016-2027)
Ecommerce Penetration Has Declined in Western Europe Since 2021, but It Will Edge Up This Year (ecommerce % of total retail sales, by country in Western Europe, 2020-2025)