Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024

Steadiness and Stability Replaces High Highs and Low Lows

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  | Feb 27, 2024
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Executive Summary
As global economies stabilize, so will retail and ecommerce sales
Stability means fewer growth standouts, but India and Latin America are still going strong
The US, China, and Western Europe lead the rest of the world in total sales by a wide margin
Ecommerce penetration is once again increasing almost everywhere
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About This Report
Retail ecommerce has entered a new era of slow and steady growth in most countries. This status quo replaces the previous era of spectacular growth and jarring declines.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
As global economies stabilize, so will retail and ecommerce sales
Stability means fewer growth standouts, but India and Latin America are still going strong
The US, China, and Western Europe lead the rest of the world in total sales by a wide margin
Ecommerce penetration is once again increasing almost everywhere
Media Gallery

Total retail and ecommerce sales will grow relatively modestly in 2024 by historic standards. However, there will be fewer low points around the world and fewer wild fluctuations. Growth will be steady in the coming years, with notable spikes in a handful of emerging markets.

Key Question: What is the outlook for worldwide and country-by-country retail and ecommerce sales in 2024 and beyond?

Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2021-2027 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)
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Key Stat: Ecommerce sales will cross the $6 trillion mark this year, and 20.1% of all retail sales will be conducted digitally. Excluding China from the calculus, the worldwide ecommerce share will be 12.4%.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. As global economies stabilize, so will retail and ecommerce sales
  1. Stability means fewer growth standouts, but India and Latin America are still going strong
  2. The US, China, and Western Europe lead the rest of the world in total sales by a wide margin
  1. Ecommerce penetration is once again increasing almost everywhere
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2021-2027 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)Physical Retail Sales Growth vs. Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth Worldwide, 2016-2027 (% change)
Retail Ecommerce and Total Retail Sales Growth, by Largest Markets Worldwide, 2024 (% change)Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2024 (% change)
The US Will Account for Nearly a Quarter of All Worldwide Retail Sales in 2024 (US, China*, and Western Europe % of worldwide retail sales, 2016-2027)China Will Account for Just Over Half of All Ecommerce Sales Worldwide in 2024 (China*, US, and Western Europe % of worldwide ecommerce sales, 2016-2027)
Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2024 (billions and % change)China Conducts Far More of Its Retail Sales Online Than Any Other Part of the World (ecommerce % of total retail sales, by market, 2024)
Ecommerce Penetration Has Declined in Western Europe Since 2021, but It Will Edge Up This Year (ecommerce % of total retail sales, by country in Western Europe, 2020-2025)Top 10 Countries, Ranked by Retail Ecommerce as a Share of Total Retail Sales, 2024 (% of total retail sales)

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authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Paul Briggs
Principal Analyst
Oscar Bruce Jr.
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Matteo Ceurvels
Senior Analyst
Vivian Dong
Associate Forecasting Analyst
Jasmin Ellis
Forecasting Analyst
Zach Goldner
Forecasting Analyst
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Louie-Lam
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Andrew Spink
Forecasting Analyst