We began tracking ecommerce on a global scale in 2010, and until last year, worldwide ecommerce sales growth had always exceeded 20% per annum. In 2021, growth dropped to a still-healthy 17.1%. In 2022, however, deceleration will be severe. We estimate just 9.7% growth this year.
Total retail sales growth around the world will also be in the doldrums, but not excessively so by historical standards. Overall retail will expand by 4.7% this year, not much slower than the usual rates seen throughout the 2010s. Between 2012 and 2019, retail growth ranged from 4.6% to 7.8% per year, whereas ecommerce growth ranged from 20.7% to 28.3%.
The current downturn will manifest mostly in the digital realm. Ecommerce sellers will need to adjust to a slower-growth environment. Overall retail, meanwhile, will chug along at typical low to mid-single-digit rates.