Why we think Amazon might create a Prime Day event in the spring, and what it could look like

Calendar context: With the invention of Prime Day, Amazon created an industrywide retail holiday consumers can now count on in the summer each year. Last year, Amazon also launched its Prime Early Access Sale in October.

“We now have three key tentpoles,” said our analyst Andrew Lipsman on “Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail,” referring to Prime Day, the Prime Early Access Sale, and Black Friday. But spring remains untapped. “A question I get is, ‘Is Amazon going to do more of these?’ And I think the answer is yes, eventually,” said Lipsman.

The opportunity: US ecommerce sales totaled $12.7 billion this past Prime Day, according to Adobe Analytics. Sellers spent 14% of their Prime Day revenues on Amazon ads, per Momentum Commerce. With both the retail and advertising opportunities growing bigger each year, Amazon would be wise to extend these earnings into the spring and undercut competition in the process, though it could risk diluting the sense of urgency associated with Prime Day.

The execution: There are a few approaches Amazon could take during the first half of the year.

A May home improvement event: “I could see Amazon having a spring event that is built around this whole idea of home improvement, maybe trying to capture some of that share from Wayfair,” Lipsman said.

• Wayfair set the precedent with Way Day.
• Amazon has 28.9% penetration in the US ecommerce furniture and home furnishings, according to our forecast. The company could boost sales by competing with The Home Depot and Lowe’s, Lipsman said.
• Home and garden, outdoor furniture, and smart home tech are potential categories for a home improvement event, Lipsman said.

An April grocery event: “This year, there was a pretty heavy emphasis on the food and beverage category” during Prime Day, said our analyst Blake Droesch. Amazon could channel that interest into a grocery-focused event.

• Amazon has 17.6% penetration in the US ecommerce food and beverage, according to our forecast, and is still working to gain an advantage over Walmart’s vast physical presence.
• Droesch suggested Amazon offer vouchers for delivery during an event ahead of Easter, Passover, and other spring holidays.

A February health and wellness event: Positioned right before Valentine’s Day, Amazon could offer a second chance at New Year’s resolutions with an event, pushing health and beauty as well as apparel.

• Health and beauty is Amazon’s fastest-growing US ecommerce category at a growth rate of 24.1%, according to our forecast. However, there’s still room for its ecommerce sales penetration, which is currently at 32.4%, to expand.
• By pushing Subscribe & Save for recurring purchases of consumer packaged goods, Amazon could also encourage these consumers to make recurring purchases after the event.

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