The search is on: Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency changed the digital advertising game when it took effect last year. Meta, in particular, took a big hit, said Lipsman, as direct-to-consumer (D2C) ad spend moved away from the platform to Google (34.9% of D2C ad spend in Q1 2021 versus 27.0% in Q1 2022).
However, Lipsman warned that, despite D2C dollars shifting to Google, it may not be able to keep its grip on search advertising for long. Google’s share of US search advertising is down five points over the past three years to 56.1%, while Amazon has increased its share by nearly 10 points to 22.6%.
Video wars: While not technically a streaming service, TikTok is in contention for serious ad dollars due to being a more immediate form of performance advertising. TikTok will continue to pull share away from Meta and other social platforms, said Lipsman.
Meanwhile, linear TV dollars will continue to shift to streaming services like Apple TV, Amazon, Hulu, and possibly even Netflix’s new ad-supported tier.
So who’s going to win? “The two names I see popping up the most are Amazon and Apple,” said Lipsman.
We predict Amazon’s total ad revenues will grow nearly 19% to reach $34.59 billion next year. Though Apple’s total 2023 ad revenues will be much smaller ($5.34 billion), the company will outpace Amazon’s growth at over 25% year over year.
We’d keep an eye on these two.
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