5 charts on what’s shaping retail media through 2028: Search, non-endemic advertisers, financial media competition

US omnichannel retail media ad spend will account for nearly a quarter of total media ad spend by 2028, reaching $129.93 billion, per our forecast. This growth will be fueled by a surge in retail media search, non-endemic partnerships, and off-site placements. However, financial media networks may give retail media networks some competition for advertiser dollars.

Here are five charts to help you dig deeper.

1. Retail media search skyrockets

US retail media search ad spend is on the rise, growing by double digits over the next four years to reach $76.83 billion, per our forecast. Non-retail media (traditional) search ad spend is on the decline, growing less than 1.0% in 2028, reaching $106.96 billion.

The rise in retail media ad spend may be due to its ability to deliver on performance-related goals. Over half (59%) of retail marketers worldwide say performance-driven paid media is the advertising capability and media investment most critical to them, according to a November 2023 survey from Mediaocean and TechValidate.

2. In-store retail media grows steadily despite barriers to adoption

Although ad spend on in-store retail media will remain less than 1.0% of total retail media ad spend in the US through 2028, it will grow steadily over the next four years, per our forecast.

But in-store retail media often requires heavy investment in new technology, which could be a barrier to further adoption, according to our In-Store Retail Media 2024 report. Advertisers are more likely to spend on established formats, like on-site ads or paid search.

3. Non-endemic partnerships are becoming commonplace

More than half (53%) of brands in the US take advantage of data and media opportunities with retailers that don’t carry their products (a.k.a., non-endemic brands), according to August 2023 data by Merkle.

Non-endemic brands can benefit from retail media networks’ access to first-party data, but it’s important to ensure that non-endemic partnerships make sense from both a brand and retailer perspective.

“If you are allocating real estate to advertisers that are really irrelevant to your customer base, then you run the risk of eroding the customer's experience,” our analyst Sarah Marzano said on an episode of the “Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail” podcast.

4. More dollars are funneling into off-site placements

We forecast US ad spend on off-site retail media will grow 27.1%, reaching $13.52 billion in 2025 (up from $10.64 billion this year).

Over half (55.8%) of marketers worldwide plan to increase their spend on off-site retail media ads, according to a December 2023 survey from EMARKETER and TripleLift.

Currently, 36.4% of worldwide marketers use off-site display formats, the most popular format, followed by online video (used by 33.3% of worldwide marketers) and connected TV (25.7%), per the survey.

5. Financial media presents some competition

The retail media landscape is growing, making room for new players like financial media networks (FMNs), advertising platforms that leverage financial institutions’ (FIs) proprietary data to target personalized ads to customers in FIs’ channels.

We expect US ad spend on FMNs to more than quadruple over the next two years, growing from $350 million in 2024 to $1.50 billion in 2026. Though we separate spend on financial media and retail media, the rise of FMNs could give retailers some competition and impact how advertisers spend.

This was originally featured in the Retail Media Weekly newsletter. For more marketing insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.