As the top two retailers in the US, Walmart and Amazon are battling for holiday success by rolling out the best deals, the fastest delivery, and the best in-store experience. Here’s who we expect will come out on top in each of those areas, plus a post-holiday outlook.
Walmart’s Black Friday Deals events are taking place over several events online and in-store starting on November 8 and ending on Cyber Monday, November 26.
Amazon’s Black Friday deals start November 17 and also go through Cyber Monday.
Who’s got the membership advantage? Walmart is leaning harder into its membership perks for its holiday sales, which could give it an advantage over Amazon in terms of new sign-ups. Plus, Prime membership is pretty saturated, so there’s less room for it to grow. Still, the strength of Amazon Prime’s year-round perks (specifically around the speed of its delivery) make it a no-brainer for the holiday season.
Walmart and Amazon are building out their delivery infrastructure to ensure smooth and fast deliveries during the holiday season.
Walmart is adding more same-day delivery slots and extending its late-night delivery services until 10:30pm in preparation for the holidays. It’s also making more items available for next- and two-day shipping.
Amazon says it will open two new delivery stations in Connecticut ahead of the holiday season, which will help speed up delivery times regionally.
Who’s got the membership advantage? Amazon Prime. Members get same-day and one-day delivery from Amazon.com. Plus, even without Prime, Amazon’s click-to-door speed gives it a massive advantage over other retailers.
With its 4,616 physical locations, 90% of the US population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart store. This physical presence gives it an edge over purely digital retailers during the holidays, when busy consumers are likely to use click and collect or buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) options.
Who’s got the membership advantage? Walmart+, because Walmart has a much bigger physical footprint. Amazon just expanded grocery delivery and free pickup services to all Amazon Fresh customers, which previously was only reserved for Prime members. But that move will likely grow the grocery business, not Prime membership.
A post-holiday outlook: In 2024, 97.2 million US households will be Amazon Prime members, nearly six times more than the 16.0 million Walmart+ US households, per our forecasts.
While both memberships are seeing slowing growth, Amazon’s is more pronounced—growth rates won’t be more than 3% over the next four years.
Who’s got the membership advantage? Amazon Prime. Despite the slowing growth, nearly three-quarters of US households will be members by 2027, per our forecast. Walmart+ has a long way to go before it catches up.
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