Although grocery sales are increasingly shifting online, digital’s share of total grocery sales will be lower than anticipated, according to our analyst, Blake Droesch.
“That doesn’t mean digital grocery penetration has hit a ceiling—there are still ways that bigger retailers can build out the accessibility of online grocery that foster growth in the long term. But in the immediate future, the market needs to catch up and correct itself from the hypergrowth we saw during the pandemic.”
Still, grocery is the second-largest ecommerce category we track, garnering $220.48 billion in 2025, according to our “US Digital Grocery Forecast 2025” report.
The key players: Walmart is the top digital grocery retailer, capturing 31.6% of US grocery ecommerce sales in 2025, followed by Amazon (22.6%) and Kroger (8.6%).
- Walmart’s dominance isn’t necessarily due to a larger volume of sales but rather a higher price per order than its competitors, said Droesch.
- “Consumers are doing more comprehensive grocery shopping at Walmart, whereas, with Amazon, shoppers tend to do more one-off purchases,” he said.
The challengers: In 2025, Uber and DoorDash will be among the fastest-growing players in digital grocery, according to our forecast.
- However, Instacart will still rake in the majority (57.7%) of US grocery delivery intermediary sales.
- While grocery intermediaries like Instacart and DoorDash are growing in popularity, nearly three-quarters (72.2%) of US digital grocery sales will come directly from retailer sites.
- “Intermediaries aren’t able to gain as much ground, because the traditional grocers don’t feel the need to go online as much as they did during the pandemic,” said Droesch. “Plus, the two biggest players, Walmart and Amazon, don’t really rely on intermediaries because they do most of that stuff in-house.”
Looking forward: Walmart’s powerful flywheel will help it protect and grow its digital grocery share, according to Droesch.
- “Walmart is where the largest percentage of people in the US buy groceries,” he said. “And Walmart+ helps to facilitate the pathway from in-store to online, giving customers free delivery and cash-back on purchases.”
- Meanwhile, Amazon should focus on growing its ship-to-home business.
- “A lot of grocery delivery is packaged foods with a longer shelf life, or non-food and beverage items like toiletries or paper products,” said Droesch. “Amazon has a lot of opportunity to grow in that area.”
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