US Holiday 2022 Review and Holiday 2023 Preview

How the Rise of October Holiday Shopping Alters the 2023 Forecast

Executive Summary

Consumer spending during the 2022 US holiday season reverted to more typical levels following two years of outsize pandemic-era growth. As economic uncertainty continues into the new year, what should retail marketers expect for the 2023 holiday season?

Key Question: How does 2022’s US holiday season performance shape our early retail and ecommerce spending forecast for the 2023 holidays?

KEY STAT: Last year, holiday season retail sales grew by 4.8% YoY, following two years of surging retail and ecommerce growth. We expect a similar gain of 4.5% for the 2023 holiday season.

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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
    3. Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
    4. Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
    5. Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
    1. Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
    2. Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
    3. Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
    4. Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
    5. We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
    1. Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
    2. Insider Intelligence Interviews
    3. Sources
    4. Media Gallery

    Interviewed for This Report

    Bruce Richards
    Industry Strategy and Marketing Lead, Retail & Consumer Goods
    Interviewed January 17, 2023

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    Andrew Lipsman


    Whitney Birdsall
    Senior Forecasting Analyst
    Sky Canaves
    Senior Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
    Suzy Davidkhanian
    Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
    Brian Lau
    Forecasting Analyst
    Natalie McGranahan
    Senior Researcher and Taxonomy Manager