US Holiday 2022 Review and Holiday 2023 Preview

How the Rise of October Holiday Shopping Alters the 2023 Forecast

Report by Andrew Lipsman  | Feb 28, 2023
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
The 2022 holiday season’s solid retail sales gains were mostly attributable to inflation, but they nevertheless paint a cautiously optimistic picture for the 2023 holiday season.
Topics
Holiday & Seasonal Shopping
US
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

Executive Summary

Consumer spending during the 2022 US holiday season reverted to more typical levels following two years of outsize pandemic-era growth. As economic uncertainty continues into the new year, what should retail marketers expect for the 2023 holiday season?

Key Question: How does 2022’s US holiday season performance shape our early retail and ecommerce spending forecast for the 2023 holidays?

US Retail Holiday Season Sales, 2019-2023 (billions and % change)
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KEY STAT: Last year, holiday season retail sales grew by 4.8% YoY, following two years of surging retail and ecommerce growth. We expect a similar gain of 4.5% for the 2023 holiday season.

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    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary
    2. Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
    3. Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
    4. Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
    5. Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
    1. Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
    2. Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
    3. Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
    4. Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
    5. We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
    1. Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
    2. Insider Intelligence Interviews
    3. Sources
    4. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    US Retail Holiday Season Sales, 2019-2023 (billions and % change)US Retail Ecommerce, Non-Ecommerce, and Total Retail Holiday Season Sales Growth, 2015-2022 (% change)
    US Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Month, Q4 2022 (millions and % change)US Holiday Season* Discounts, by Category, 2021 & 2022 (% average discount)
    US Thanksgiving Weekend In-Store and Digital Shoppers, 2021 & 2022 (millions and % change)US Cyber Five Retail Ecommerce Holiday Season Sales, by Shopping Day, 2022 (billions and % change vs. prior year)
    US Retail Ecommerce and Total Retail Holiday Season Sales Growth, by Product Category, 2022 (% change vs. prior year)Top 15 US Digital Retailers, Ranked by Unique Visitors, Nov-Dec 2022 (millions and % change)
    US Retail Holiday Season Sales, by Channel, 2022 & 2023 (billions, % change, and % of total)

    Interviewed for This Report

    Bruce Richards
    Adobe
    Industry Strategy and Marketing Lead, Retail & Consumer Goods
    Interviewed January 17, 2023

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    Download
    Report
    Deck
    The One-Pager
    Share
    Table of Contents
    Executive Summary
    Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
    Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
    Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
    Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
    Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
    Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
    Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
    Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
    We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
    Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
    Insider Intelligence Interviews
    Sources
    Media Gallery
    About This Report
    The 2022 holiday season’s solid retail sales gains were mostly attributable to inflation, but they nevertheless paint a cautiously optimistic picture for the 2023 holiday season.
    Topics
    Holiday & Seasonal Shopping
    US
    Table of Contents
    Executive Summary
    Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
    Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
    Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
    Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
    Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
    Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
    Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
    Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
    We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
    Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
    Insider Intelligence Interviews
    Sources
    Media Gallery
    Download PDF

    authors

    Andrew Lipsman

    Contributors

    Whitney Birdsall
    Senior Forecasting Analyst
    Sky Canaves
    Senior Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
    Suzy Davidkhanian
    Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
    Brian Lau
    Forecasting Analyst
    Natalie McGranahan
    Senior Researcher and Taxonomy Manager