US box office could grow 5% in 2025 but remains well below prepandemic levels

The news: The 2024 US box office is projected to reach $8.75 billion, marking a 3% decline from 2023 and falling well short of pre-pandemic levels of $11 billion-plus, though family-friendly content showed surprising strength.

More importantly, confidence is building for the new year, supported by promising early trends.

Calendar casualties: The 2023 Hollywood strikes significantly disrupted the 2024 release calendar, causing downstream effects.

• The box office was down 27.5% YoY before “Inside Out 2” revived momentum in June, following some missing tentpole releases.
• Major delays of anticipated films like "Deadpool & Wolverine" and the eighth “Mission: Impossible” disrupted release schedules dramatically.

What's performing: PG-rated and family content dominated the year's success stories.

• PG-rated movies captured 33% of total revenues, surpassing PG-13 films at 30%.
• “Inside Out 2” became the highest-grossing animated film ever (unadjusted for inflation).
• Family-oriented films collectively grossed over $2.9 billion.
• Given the above, it should be little surprise that Disney led with $2.2 billion in US box office receipts, with Comcast’s Universal in second place at $1.88 billion.

Market challenges: Several high-profile releases struggled despite significant investment.

• Superhero films “Madame Web” and “Kraven the Hunter” underperformed, as Sony continued to have difficulty using its rights to secondary Spider-Man characters.
• Other action tentpoles “The Fall Guy” and “Furiosa” fell short of expectations as well.
• Ambitious projects like “Horizon” and “Megalopolis” faced commercial challenges.

Looking ahead: Expected continued box office growth in 2025—one Wedbush Securities forecast projects $9.17 billion—driven by both audience behavior and an impressive content slate.

Strong early indicators support this growth:

• “Superman's” first teaser has generated 50.3 million YouTube views in two weeks, nearly matching the decade-long total for "Man of Steel."
• The teaser's 250 million views across social platforms set Warner Bros. and DC records for trailer engagement.
• An unusually packed schedule includes anticipated releases like "Jurassic World: Rebirth," "Avatar: Fire and Ash," and "Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning."

The path to recovery appears clearer than in 2024:

• Family content continues to demonstrate reliable box office performance.
• Premium format viewership shows sustained audience willingness to spend.
• A more stable release calendar should prevent the disruptions that hobbled 2024.
• The strikes' resolution allows for more predictable marketing and distribution plans.

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