US Amazon Ecommerce Forecast 2024

The Ecommerce Giant Continues to Gain Market Share, but Faces New Threats From Temu and Others

Report by Blake Droesch  | UPDATED: Apr 5, 2024
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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
How big will Amazon get?
Amazon’s US ecommerce business returns to form
How will Amazon’s ecommerce business evolve over the next two years?
What do Amazon’s market share gains say about the competitive landscape?
Media Gallery
About This Report
Amazon will continue to gain market share, but new competition from Temu, Walmart, and other retailers could stunt future dominance.
Topics
Retail Categories
Ecommerce Sales
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
How big will Amazon get?
Amazon’s US ecommerce business returns to form
How will Amazon’s ecommerce business evolve over the next two years?
What do Amazon’s market share gains say about the competitive landscape?
Media Gallery

Despite already dominating the US market, Amazon’s ecommerce sales are growing faster than those of its competitors in nearly every product category. But new threats from Temu, Walmart, and other players may challenge its reign in the coming years.

Key Question: What is the two-year outlook for Amazon’s US ecommerce business?

Amazon Will Surpass 40% of US Ecommerce Sales in 2024
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Key Stat: Amazon will capture more than 40% of US ecommerce sales in 2024.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. How big will Amazon get?
  1. Amazon’s US ecommerce business returns to form
  2. How will Amazon’s ecommerce business evolve over the next two years?
  1. What do Amazon’s market share gains say about the competitive landscape?
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Amazon Will Surpass 40% of US Ecommerce Sales in 2024In 2023, Amazon's Sales Growth Outpaced the Market by the Largest Margin Since 2019
Amazon's US Sales Growth Exceeded the Total Market by Over 5 Percentage Points in 5 CategoriesAmazon Will Continue to Grow Faster Than Most Leading Retailers, Aside From Walmart (billions in US ecommerce sales and % change, by company, 2024-2025)
Health, Personal Care, and Beauty and Apparel, Footwear, and Accessories Will Play a Larger Role in Amazon's Ecommerce Business (category % of US Amazon retail ecommerce sales, 2023-2025)Amazon's Category Growth Mostly Aligns With the US Ecommerce Market (US Amazon vs. total ecommerce CAGR, by category, 2023-2025)
Amazon's Largest Market-Share Gains Will Come From Categories It Already Dominates Amazon Will Struggle to Gain Share in Household Goods Categories
Amazon Will Lose Market Share in Two Categories: Home Improvement and Auto and PartsPotential Threats to Amazon's Dominance

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First Published on Apr 4, 2024

authors

Blake Droesch

Contributors

Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Sarah Marzano