US Ad Spending 2025

As Uncertainty Reigns, Three Scenarios Emerge

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  | UPDATED: May 1, 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Unstable economic conditions have led to heightened uncertainty for advertising
There are more formats and channels for advertising than ever, but some are thriving more than others
Our growth scenarios for social, retail, and CTV ad spending show a wide array of possible outcomes
The triopoly will tighten its grip, even as revenue projections are reevaluated
Media Gallery
About This Report
Amid dizzying policy unpredictability and a grab bag of unpleasant economic possibilities, precise ad spend forecasting is challenging. A scenarios-based approach can help clarify potential outcomes.
Topics
Digital Advertising
Total Media Ad Spending
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Unstable economic conditions have led to heightened uncertainty for advertising
There are more formats and channels for advertising than ever, but some are thriving more than others
Our growth scenarios for social, retail, and CTV ad spending show a wide array of possible outcomes
The triopoly will tighten its grip, even as revenue projections are reevaluated
Media Gallery

Our Q1 ad spending forecast for 2025 assumed relatively poor economic conditions and projected moderate growth deceleration across most ad categories. Tariff chaos has ensued since then, creating profound uncertainty and lowering the floor on worst-case scenarios. Our original estimates remain in play as the best case, but we have also built alternate projections.

Key Question: What is the outlook for US total and digital ad spending across the major formats, channels, and platforms in 2025?

Tariffs Could Wipe Out All of the US Ad Market’s Projected Gains This Year (billions in US total media ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)
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Key Stat: Under the best-case scenario—a rapid return to a more limited and targeted tariff regime and a moderately subdued economy—total media ad spending in the US will increase 6.7% in 2025 and reach $422 billion. This outcome has become unlikely, however.

This report can help you:

  • Determine market sizing (brands, media platforms, agencies, and solution providers)
  • Develop media strategy and allocate budget for campaigns (brands and agencies)

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Unstable economic conditions have led to heightened uncertainty for advertising
  1. There are more formats and channels for advertising than ever, but some are thriving more than others
  2. Our growth scenarios for social, retail, and CTV ad spending show a wide array of possible outcomes
  1. The triopoly will tighten its grip, even as revenue projections are reevaluated
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Tariffs Could Wipe Out All of the US Ad Market’s Projected Gains This Year (billions in US total media ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)US Digital Ad Spend Will Remain Strong Despite Tariff-Related Cuts to Marketing Budgets (billions in US digital ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)
Display and Search Advertising Now Have Numerous Massive Subcategories in the US (billions in US display and search ad spending, % change, and % of total digital ad spending, 2025)Traditional Search Will Draw the Most Digital Ad Spending in 2025, but Its Lead Is Dwindling (billions in US ad spending, by select media format/channel, 2025)
Tariffs Will Reduce US Social Ad Growth, as Major Spenders Like Chinese Retailers Cut Back (billions in US social network ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)US Retail Media Ad Spend Will Grow Even With Heavy Tariffs (billions in US retail media ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)
The Fast-Growing CTV Ad Market Could Become Stagnant Due to Heavy Tariffs (billions in US connected TV (CTV) ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)Five Companies Will Account for Nearly 70% of the US Digital Ad Market in 2025 (% of total US digital ad spending, by company, 2022-2027)
13 Companies Will Have Over $2 Billion in Net Digital Ad Revenues in the US in 2025 (billions in net US digital ad revenues, by company, 2025)

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First Published on Apr 30, 2025

authors

Ethan Cramer-Flood

Contributors

Vladimir de Leon
Chart Editor
Vivian Dong
Forecasting Analyst
Zach Goldner
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Penelope Lin
Director, Data Visualization
Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf
Senior Analyst, Digital Advertising & Media
Chuck Rawlings
Senior Researcher
Andrew Spink
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Sakina Thanawala
Copy Editor
Julia Woolever
Yoram Wurmser
Principal Analyst