The 2023 upfront market will likely be the last one transacted primarily on Nielsen’s legacy currency. A shift from traditional TV to digital video advertising is the main factor driving this change.
The first TV upfronts debuted in 1962 against the backdrop of the Cuban missile crisis, the UK release of “Love Me Do,” and the opening season of the awful-yet-lovable New York Mets. Ad space was sold via paper and handshakes, and a single currency measured all. Now, the upfronts are shedding their “Mad Men” roots and morphing into something different—more digital, more fragmented, less predictable, and no longer transacted or measured against a single currency. And, in a reminder of how the pandemic upended the upfronts in 2020, this year’s event has been rocked by a writers strike, the cancellation of at least one major event, and high-level executive shake-ups. Ahead, we look at the state of play at the 2023 upfronts, including our latest forecast for US upfront ad spending and how a shift toward digital video, especially connected TV (CTV), is transforming this time-honored tradition.
KEYQUESTIONS
How much will be spent on TV, digital video, and CTV at this year’s and next year’s upfronts and the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) Digital Content NewFronts?
What do upfront ad spending trends say about the TV ad industry?
How will alternative currencies play out in the 2023 upfronts?
How will ad pricing, volume, and contract flexibility factor into upfront negotiations?
KEY STAT: US upfront TV ad spending will fall during the 2023–2024 season on a YoY basis and relative to our previous forecast, as the industry continues to veer toward digital programming.
Here’s what’s in the full report
1file
Exportable files for easy reading, analysis and sharing.
4charts
Reliable data in simple displays for presentations and quick decision making.
6expert perspectives
Insights from industry and company leaders.
Table of Contents
Report Snapshot
Upfront TV ad spending is trending downward.
Digital video is making up for losses in the TV upfront market.
More CTV dollars are going to the upfronts.
Nielsen is still the leading currency for this year’s upfronts.
A buyer’s market will lower prices and increase contract flexibility.
Gain access to reliable data presented in clear and intelligible displays for quick understanding and decision making on the most important topics related to your industry, included at no extra cost.
Interest Level in Transacting on Non-Legacy Currencies at This Year's Upfront According to US Brand/Advertising Professionals, March 2023 (% of respondents)
Interest Level in Transacting on Non-Legacy Currencies at This Year's Upfront According to US Brand/Advertising Professionals, March 2023 (% of respondents)