Twitter sees gentle downward flight in US users but ad revenues rise

The forecast: Twitter has started a gentle decline in US users. The social media app peaked in 2021 with 57.8 million monthly US users. This year, that figure will flutter downward by 0.5%, hitting 57.5 million by year-end. But it's not all a decline for the platform.

Dive deeper:

• Despite Elon Musk's tumultuous Twitter takeover—which is now temporarily on hold, per Musk—we don't project any major changes in user count associated with executive leadership changes at this time.
• Rather, the most occasional monthly users (those who use the platform once or twice per month) are slipping away, either because of fatigue or a lack of desired news content on the bird app.
• That said, there's more to the app's US figures than user decline. Twitter's US ad revenues are still in flight and will increase by 23.8% this year to hit $3.01 billion.
• US ad dollars are also increasing marginally as a share of social network ad spending and will make up 4.0% this year, as Facebook's growth slows while the rest of social glides smoothly.
• However, there could be reason for concern for advertisers, considering less than three years ago Musk tweeted, "I hate advertising." It's no surprise the billionaire businessman is looking for other methods for monetizing the app, making the future for advertisers less certain.

Elsewhere in the Twitterverse:

• While Twitter glides downward in US, user numbers worldwide are still rising and will grow 1.5% to 368.1 million users worldwide this year.
• The fastest growth in Twitter users is concentrated in Western Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific.
• Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Europe will see a 7.0% decline in Twitter users this year, propelled by Russia's ban on Twitter, which limited the access of internet users in Russia to non-state-sponsored news.

Looking ahead: Twitter's days of US user growth are in the rearview mirror. In 2026, we forecast the app will have just 56.6 million monthly active users. That said, the app's future is still cloudy, and if Musk goes through with purchasing the app, its entire monetization model could change.