Twitter’s ad business will bring in $2 billion less in 2023 than previously projected

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Last October, we projected that Twitter’s 2023 ad revenues would reach $4.74 billion worldwide. Since Elon Musk’s takeover, we’ve cut our projection by nearly $2 billion, to just $2.98 billion, as the app grapples with brand safety issues, confusing policies, and broken technology.

Beyond the chart: Twitter aims to pull out of its nosedive with subscription revenues, but it won’t succeed. Twitter Blue made only $11 million from mobile subscriptions in its first three months, according to Sensor Tower data reported by TechCrunch. With three-quarters of its staff gone, a flurry of policies being introduced and sunsetted, and Musk’s controversial image, Twitter has a long way to go before it can win back the trust of both advertisers and users.

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Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of various elements related to the ad spending market, including macro-level economic conditions; historical trends of the advertising market; historical trends of each medium in relation to other media; reported revenues from major ad publishers; estimates from other research firms; data from benchmark sources; consumer media consumption trends; consumer device usage trends; and eMarketer interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands, media publishers, and other industry leaders.